Süper Lig· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.60 | 1.64–3.57 | 1.38–3.83 | 0.86 | 0.00–1.72 | 0.00–1.97 | 3.471.14–5.80 |
| Shots on target | 7.28 | 5.43–9.14 | 4.93–9.64 | 3.09 | 1.39–4.80 | 0.92–5.27 | 10.385.85–14.91 |
| Total shots | 20.09 | 16.38–23.79 | 15.35–24.82 | 9.14 | 5.76–12.52 | 4.83–13.45 | 29.2320.19–38.27 |
| Shots in box | 14.12 | 11.60–16.63 | 10.74–17.50 | 5.50 | 3.19–7.80 | 2.40–8.59 | 19.6113.13–26.09 |
| Blocked shots | 5.26 | 3.68–6.84 | 3.14–7.38 | 2.64 | 1.23–4.06 | 0.74–4.55 | 7.903.88–11.92 |
| Corners | 7.27 | 5.07–9.48 | 4.47–10.07 | 2.92 | 0.94–4.90 | 0.40–5.44 | 10.194.88–15.51 |
| Possession % | 60.30 | 53.98–66.62 | 52.38–68.21 | 39.79 | 33.48–46.11 | 31.88–47.71 | — |
| Passes | 515 | 450–581 | 432–598 | 346 | 281–411 | 264–428 | 861696–1026 |
| Pass accuracy % | 87.08 | 82.87–91.30 | 81.57–92.60 | 79.03 | 74.52–83.54 | 73.19–84.87 | — |
| Fouls | 11.89 | 9.03–14.75 | 8.15–15.63 | 12.78 | 9.83–15.72 | 8.91–16.64 | 24.6617.06–32.27 |
| Offsides | 1.30 | 0.09–2.51 | 0.00–2.86 | 1.82 | 0.66–2.98 | 0.32–3.31 | 3.120.07–6.17 |
| Yellow cards | 1.24 | 0.18–2.29 | 0.00–2.57 | 2.33 | 1.21–3.45 | 0.92–3.74 | 3.570.83–6.31 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.37 | 0.95–3.78 | 0.56–4.17 | 4.21 | 2.65–5.76 | 2.22–6.19 | 6.572.78–10.36 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
75%
15%
Shots on target
88%
Total shots
98%
Shots in box
97%
Blocked shots
78%
Corners
89%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
27%
23%
50%
Yellow cards
19%
19%
62%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
18%
70%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+