Süper Lig· Regular Season - 15· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 | 0.02–1.95 | 0.00–2.21 | 1.27 | 0.41–2.13 | 0.17–2.38 | 2.260.00–4.59 |
| Shots on target | 3.51 | 1.65–5.37 | 1.15–5.86 | 4.41 | 2.70–6.12 | 2.23–6.59 | 7.923.39–12.45 |
| Total shots | 11.54 | 7.83–15.24 | 6.80–16.27 | 13.50 | 10.12–16.88 | 9.19–17.81 | 25.0415.99–34.08 |
| Shots in box | 6.97 | 4.45–9.49 | 3.59–10.35 | 7.56 | 5.26–9.86 | 4.46–10.66 | 14.538.05–21.01 |
| Blocked shots | 2.89 | 1.31–4.47 | 0.77–5.01 | 3.19 | 1.78–4.61 | 1.29–5.09 | 6.082.06–10.10 |
| Corners | 4.22 | 2.01–6.42 | 1.42–7.02 | 4.87 | 2.89–6.85 | 2.35–7.38 | 9.093.77–14.40 |
| Possession % | 45.71 | 39.40–52.03 | 37.80–53.63 | 55.66 | 49.34–61.98 | 47.75–63.58 | — |
| Passes | 397 | 332–462 | 314–480 | 470 | 406–535 | 388–552 | 867702–1032 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.17 | 75.95–84.38 | 74.65–85.68 | 83.66 | 79.15–88.16 | 77.82–89.49 | — |
| Fouls | 11.61 | 8.75–14.47 | 7.87–15.35 | 12.84 | 9.89–15.78 | 8.97–16.70 | 24.4516.84–32.05 |
| Offsides | 1.83 | 0.62–3.04 | 0.28–3.39 | 1.51 | 0.35–2.68 | 0.02–3.01 | 3.350.30–6.39 |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 | 0.60–2.71 | 0.32–2.98 | 2.26 | 1.14–3.38 | 0.85–3.67 | 3.921.18–6.65 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.68 | 1.26–4.09 | 0.88–4.48 | 2.63 | 1.07–4.18 | 0.64–4.61 | 5.311.52–9.10 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
29%
28%
43%
Shots on target
31%
14%
56%
Total shots
31%
61%
Shots in box
39%
51%
Blocked shots
37%
16%
47%
Corners
35%
13%
52%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
45%
23%
32%
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+