Süper Lig· Regular Season - 17· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.64 | 0.68–2.60 | 0.42–2.86 | 1.03 | 0.17–1.89 | 0.00–2.13 | 2.670.34–5.00 |
| Shots on target | 4.42 | 2.56–6.27 | 2.06–6.77 | 3.44 | 1.73–5.14 | 1.26–5.61 | 7.853.32–12.38 |
| Total shots | 13.64 | 9.93–17.34 | 8.90–18.37 | 10.81 | 7.43–14.19 | 6.50–15.12 | 24.4515.40–33.49 |
| Shots in box | 9.84 | 7.32–12.36 | 6.46–13.22 | 5.74 | 3.44–8.05 | 2.65–8.84 | 15.589.11–22.06 |
| Blocked shots | 3.67 | 2.09–5.26 | 1.55–5.79 | 2.83 | 1.41–4.24 | 0.93–4.73 | 6.502.48–10.52 |
| Corners | 4.78 | 2.58–6.99 | 1.98–7.59 | 3.89 | 1.91–5.87 | 1.38–6.41 | 8.683.36–13.99 |
| Possession % | 54.95 | 48.63–61.27 | 47.04–62.86 | 44.36 | 38.04–50.68 | 36.44–52.27 | — |
| Passes | 521 | 456–586 | 438–604 | 400 | 336–465 | 318–482 | 921756–1086 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.75 | 74.53–82.96 | 73.23–84.26 | 79.06 | 74.56–83.57 | 73.23–84.90 | — |
| Fouls | 11.61 | 8.75–14.47 | 7.87–15.35 | 13.54 | 10.60–16.49 | 9.68–17.41 | 25.1517.55–32.76 |
| Offsides | 1.47 | 0.26–2.68 | 0.00–3.03 | 1.97 | 0.81–3.13 | 0.48–3.47 | 3.450.40–6.49 |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 | 0.97–3.08 | 0.70–3.36 | 2.23 | 1.11–3.35 | 0.82–3.64 | 4.261.52–7.00 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.29 | 0.87–3.70 | 0.48–4.09 | 3.30 | 1.75–4.86 | 1.32–5.29 | 5.591.80–9.38 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
52%
25%
24%
Shots on target
57%
14%
30%
Total shots
68%
25%
Shots in box
82%
Blocked shots
55%
15%
30%
Corners
55%
13%
32%
Fouls
31%
61%
Offsides
29%
22%
49%
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
26%
16%
58%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+