Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.84 | 0.00–1.81 | 0.00–2.07 | 2.37 | 1.51–3.23 | 1.27–3.48 | 3.220.89–5.55 |
| Shots on target | 3.48 | 1.62–5.34 | 1.13–5.84 | 6.15 | 4.44–7.86 | 3.97–8.32 | 9.635.10–14.16 |
| Total shots | 10.91 | 7.20–14.61 | 6.17–15.64 | 17.59 | 14.21–20.96 | 13.28–21.89 | 28.4919.45–37.53 |
| Shots in box | 5.71 | 3.20–8.23 | 2.33–9.09 | 11.87 | 9.57–14.17 | 8.77–14.97 | 17.5811.10–24.06 |
| Blocked shots | 2.74 | 1.16–4.33 | 0.62–4.86 | 4.33 | 2.91–5.74 | 2.43–6.23 | 7.073.05–11.09 |
| Corners | 3.37 | 1.17–5.58 | 0.57–6.17 | 6.76 | 4.78–8.74 | 4.24–9.27 | 10.134.81–15.45 |
| Possession % | 40.45 | 34.14–46.77 | 32.54–48.37 | 60.32 | 54.00–66.63 | 52.40–68.23 | — |
| Passes | 336 | 270–401 | 253–419 | 498 | 433–563 | 416–580 | 834669–999 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.69 | 72.47–80.90 | 71.17–82.21 | 86.84 | 82.34–91.35 | 81.01–92.68 | — |
| Fouls | 11.89 | 9.03–14.74 | 8.15–15.63 | 12.97 | 10.03–15.92 | 9.11–16.84 | 24.8617.25–32.47 |
| Offsides | 2.47 | 1.26–3.67 | 0.91–4.02 | 1.68 | 0.52–2.85 | 0.19–3.18 | 4.151.10–7.20 |
| Yellow cards | 2.36 | 1.30–3.41 | 1.03–3.68 | 2.03 | 0.91–3.15 | 0.62–3.44 | 4.391.65–7.13 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 3.93 | 2.51–5.34 | 2.13–5.73 | 2.68 | 1.12–4.23 | 0.69–4.66 | 6.602.82–10.39 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
17%
71%
Shots on target
15%
76%
Total shots
88%
Shots in box
91%
Blocked shots
21%
66%
Corners
82%
Fouls
37%
55%
Offsides
55%
19%
26%
Yellow cards
46%
19%
34%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
61%
14%
24%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+