Süper Lig· Regular Season - 18· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 | 0.59–2.51 | 0.33–2.77 | 0.98 | 0.12–1.84 | 0.00–2.08 | 2.530.20–4.86 |
| Shots on target | 4.34 | 2.49–6.20 | 1.99–6.70 | 3.33 | 1.63–5.04 | 1.16–5.51 | 7.683.15–12.21 |
| Total shots | 14.15 | 10.45–17.86 | 9.42–18.89 | 10.82 | 7.44–14.20 | 6.51–15.13 | 24.9715.93–34.02 |
| Shots in box | 9.21 | 6.70–11.73 | 5.83–12.59 | 6.01 | 3.70–8.31 | 2.91–9.10 | 15.228.74–21.70 |
| Blocked shots | 3.32 | 1.73–4.90 | 1.20–5.43 | 2.51 | 1.10–3.93 | 0.61–4.41 | 5.831.81–9.85 |
| Corners | 5.40 | 3.19–7.60 | 2.59–8.20 | 3.86 | 1.89–5.84 | 1.35–6.38 | 9.263.94–14.58 |
| Possession % | 52.67 | 46.35–58.99 | 44.75–60.58 | 47.24 | 40.92–53.56 | 39.33–55.16 | — |
| Passes | 429 | 364–495 | 346–512 | 396 | 332–461 | 314–479 | 826660–991 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.26 | 78.04–86.47 | 76.74–87.77 | 80.02 | 75.52–84.53 | 74.19–85.86 | — |
| Fouls | 14.51 | 11.65–17.37 | 10.77–18.25 | 13.90 | 10.95–16.85 | 10.04–17.76 | 28.4120.80–36.01 |
| Offsides | 2.07 | 0.87–3.28 | 0.52–3.63 | 1.51 | 0.35–2.67 | 0.02–3.01 | 3.590.54–6.64 |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 | 0.67–2.78 | 0.40–3.05 | 2.07 | 0.95–3.19 | 0.66–3.48 | 3.791.05–6.53 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.220.00–0.86 |
| GK saves | 2.10 | 0.69–3.52 | 0.30–3.90 | 2.92 | 1.37–4.47 | 0.93–4.91 | 5.021.23–8.81 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
26%
24%
Shots on target
57%
14%
29%
Total shots
71%
22%
Shots in box
76%
17%
Blocked shots
55%
16%
29%
Corners
63%
25%
Fouls
51%
42%
Offsides
51%
21%
28%
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
Red cards
81%
GK saves
27%
17%
55%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+