Süper Lig· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 | 0.44–2.37 | 0.18–2.63 | 1.55 | 0.69–2.41 | 0.45–2.66 | 2.960.63–5.29 |
| Shots on target | 4.40 | 2.54–6.25 | 2.04–6.75 | 5.11 | 3.40–6.82 | 2.93–7.28 | 9.514.98–14.04 |
| Total shots | 15.01 | 11.30–18.71 | 10.27–19.74 | 15.51 | 12.13–18.88 | 11.20–19.82 | 30.5121.47–39.56 |
| Shots in box | 9.57 | 7.05–12.09 | 6.19–12.95 | 10.02 | 7.72–12.32 | 6.93–13.12 | 19.5913.11–26.07 |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 | 2.36–5.53 | 1.82–6.06 | 3.33 | 1.92–4.75 | 1.43–5.24 | 7.283.26–11.30 |
| Corners | 5.27 | 3.06–7.47 | 2.47–8.07 | 5.75 | 3.77–7.73 | 3.24–8.27 | 11.025.70–16.33 |
| Possession % | 55.35 | 49.03–61.66 | 47.43–63.26 | 44.12 | 37.80–50.44 | 36.20–52.03 | — |
| Passes | 418 | 353–484 | 335–501 | 306 | 242–371 | 224–389 | 725560–890 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.78 | 72.57–81.00 | 71.27–82.30 | 68.67 | 64.16–73.18 | 62.83–74.51 | — |
| Fouls | 11.87 | 9.01–14.72 | 8.12–15.61 | 15.39 | 12.45–18.34 | 11.53–19.26 | 27.2619.66–34.87 |
| Offsides | 1.40 | 0.19–2.61 | 0.00–2.96 | 1.68 | 0.52–2.84 | 0.18–3.17 | 3.080.03–6.13 |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 | 1.07–3.18 | 0.80–3.45 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 4.141.40–6.88 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.150.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.79 | 1.37–4.20 | 0.99–4.59 | 3.12 | 1.57–4.68 | 1.14–5.11 | 5.912.12–9.70 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
24%
41%
Shots on target
35%
53%
Total shots
43%
50%
Shots in box
41%
50%
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
Corners
38%
50%
Fouls
22%
72%
Offsides
32%
24%
44%
Yellow cards
42%
20%
38%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+