Süper Lig· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 | 0.37–2.30 | 0.11–2.56 | 1.92 | 1.06–2.78 | 0.81–3.03 | 3.260.93–5.58 |
| Shots on target | 4.19 | 2.33–6.04 | 1.83–6.54 | 5.66 | 3.95–7.37 | 3.49–7.84 | 9.855.32–14.38 |
| Total shots | 12.12 | 8.41–15.82 | 7.38–16.85 | 15.80 | 12.42–19.18 | 11.49–20.11 | 27.9118.87–36.96 |
| Shots in box | 7.68 | 5.16–10.19 | 4.30–11.06 | 11.16 | 8.86–13.46 | 8.06–14.26 | 18.8412.36–25.32 |
| Blocked shots | 3.09 | 1.51–4.67 | 0.97–5.21 | 3.93 | 2.52–5.35 | 2.03–5.83 | 7.023.00–11.04 |
| Corners | 4.49 | 2.29–6.70 | 1.69–7.29 | 5.89 | 3.91–7.87 | 3.38–8.41 | 10.385.07–15.70 |
| Possession % | 46.66 | 40.35–52.98 | 38.75–54.58 | 53.31 | 46.99–59.63 | 45.39–61.23 | — |
| Passes | 386 | 320–451 | 303–469 | 478 | 413–543 | 396–560 | 864699–1029 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.49 | 73.27–81.70 | 71.97–83.00 | 83.28 | 78.78–87.79 | 77.45–89.12 | — |
| Fouls | 11.62 | 8.77–14.48 | 7.88–15.37 | 11.20 | 8.25–14.15 | 7.34–15.06 | 22.8215.22–30.43 |
| Offsides | 2.30 | 1.09–3.51 | 0.75–3.85 | 1.90 | 0.73–3.06 | 0.40–3.39 | 4.201.15–7.24 |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 | 1.00–3.11 | 0.73–3.38 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 4.061.32–6.80 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.81 | 2.40–5.22 | 2.01–5.61 | 2.89 | 1.33–4.44 | 0.90–4.87 | 6.702.91–10.49 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
27%
22%
51%
Shots on target
26%
62%
Total shots
21%
73%
Shots in box
18%
75%
Blocked shots
30%
15%
55%
Corners
28%
61%
Fouls
49%
42%
Offsides
48%
20%
32%
Yellow cards
41%
21%
39%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
56%
15%
29%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+