Süper Lig· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.17 | 1.20–3.13 | 0.94–3.39 | 1.02 | 0.16–1.88 | 0.00–2.12 | 3.180.85–5.51 |
| Shots on target | 5.64 | 3.78–7.49 | 3.28–7.99 | 3.44 | 1.73–5.15 | 1.26–5.61 | 9.084.54–13.61 |
| Total shots | 16.62 | 12.92–20.32 | 11.89–21.35 | 10.73 | 7.35–14.11 | 6.42–15.04 | 27.3518.31–36.39 |
| Shots in box | 11.20 | 8.68–13.72 | 7.82–14.58 | 6.39 | 4.09–8.70 | 3.30–9.49 | 17.5911.12–24.07 |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 | 2.48–5.64 | 1.94–6.18 | 2.84 | 1.42–4.25 | 0.94–4.74 | 6.902.88–10.92 |
| Corners | 5.77 | 3.56–7.97 | 2.97–8.57 | 3.78 | 1.80–5.76 | 1.27–6.30 | 9.554.23–14.87 |
| Possession % | 50.75 | 44.43–57.06 | 42.83–58.66 | 48.66 | 42.34–54.98 | 40.74–56.57 | — |
| Passes | 466 | 401–531 | 383–549 | 439 | 374–504 | 357–521 | 905740–1070 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.82 | 75.60–84.04 | 74.30–85.34 | 79.00 | 74.49–83.51 | 73.16–84.84 | — |
| Fouls | 12.81 | 9.95–15.67 | 9.07–16.55 | 12.88 | 9.94–15.83 | 9.02–16.74 | 25.6918.08–33.29 |
| Offsides | 1.67 | 0.46–2.88 | 0.12–3.22 | 1.96 | 0.79–3.12 | 0.46–3.45 | 3.630.58–6.67 |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 | 0.87–2.98 | 0.60–3.25 | 1.87 | 0.75–2.99 | 0.46–3.28 | 3.791.05–6.53 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.30 | 0.89–3.71 | 0.50–4.10 | 3.86 | 2.31–5.42 | 1.88–5.85 | 6.162.37–9.95 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
64%
20%
17%
Shots on target
71%
18%
Total shots
85%
Shots in box
85%
Blocked shots
61%
14%
25%
Corners
68%
21%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
33%
22%
45%
Yellow cards
40%
21%
38%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
20%
14%
66%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+