Süper Lig· Regular Season - 21· · Gaziantep Stadyumu· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 | 0.34–2.27 | 0.08–2.53 | 1.26 | 0.40–2.12 | 0.16–2.37 | 2.570.24–4.90 |
| Shots on target | 4.62 | 2.77–6.48 | 2.27–6.98 | 4.15 | 2.45–5.86 | 1.98–6.33 | 8.784.25–13.31 |
| Total shots | 15.52 | 11.82–19.22 | 10.79–20.26 | 13.50 | 10.12–16.88 | 9.19–17.81 | 29.0219.98–38.06 |
| Shots in box | 8.72 | 6.21–11.24 | 5.34–12.10 | 8.17 | 5.87–10.47 | 5.07–11.27 | 16.8910.41–23.37 |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 | 2.25–5.42 | 1.71–5.95 | 3.19 | 1.77–4.60 | 1.29–5.09 | 7.023.00–11.04 |
| Corners | 5.70 | 3.49–7.90 | 2.89–8.50 | 5.29 | 3.31–7.26 | 2.77–7.80 | 10.985.67–16.30 |
| Possession % | 55.28 | 48.96–61.59 | 47.36–63.19 | 44.51 | 38.19–50.83 | 36.60–52.43 | — |
| Passes | 437 | 372–502 | 354–520 | 314 | 250–379 | 232–397 | 751586–917 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.94 | 74.73–83.16 | 73.43–84.46 | 66.81 | 62.31–71.32 | 60.98–72.65 | — |
| Fouls | 11.22 | 8.36–14.08 | 7.48–14.96 | 16.39 | 13.44–19.33 | 12.52–20.25 | 27.6120.00–35.21 |
| Offsides | 1.41 | 0.20–2.62 | 0.00–2.96 | 1.70 | 0.54–2.86 | 0.21–3.20 | 3.110.06–6.16 |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 | 0.95–3.06 | 0.68–3.34 | 2.03 | 0.91–3.15 | 0.62–3.44 | 4.041.30–6.77 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.140.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 2.64 | 1.23–4.06 | 0.84–4.45 | 3.28 | 1.73–4.84 | 1.30–5.27 | 5.932.14–9.72 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
38%
27%
36%
Shots on target
49%
14%
37%
Total shots
61%
32%
Shots in box
50%
40%
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
Corners
49%
39%
Fouls
14%
81%
Offsides
32%
24%
45%
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+