Süper Lig· Regular Season - 21· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 | 0.60–2.52 | 0.34–2.78 | 0.83 | 0.00–1.69 | 0.00–1.94 | 2.390.06–4.72 |
| Shots on target | 4.89 | 3.03–6.74 | 2.53–7.24 | 2.76 | 1.05–4.46 | 0.58–4.93 | 7.643.11–12.18 |
| Total shots | 15.31 | 11.60–19.01 | 10.57–20.04 | 9.27 | 5.90–12.65 | 4.97–13.58 | 24.5815.54–33.62 |
| Shots in box | 9.77 | 7.25–12.28 | 6.39–13.15 | 5.64 | 3.33–7.94 | 2.54–8.73 | 15.408.93–21.88 |
| Blocked shots | 3.87 | 2.29–5.46 | 1.75–5.99 | 2.38 | 0.96–3.79 | 0.48–4.28 | 6.252.23–10.27 |
| Corners | 5.32 | 3.11–7.52 | 2.52–8.12 | 3.60 | 1.63–5.58 | 1.09–6.12 | 8.923.61–14.24 |
| Possession % | 58.08 | 51.76–64.40 | 50.16–65.99 | 41.66 | 35.34–47.97 | 33.74–49.57 | — |
| Passes | 502 | 436–567 | 419–585 | 365 | 300–430 | 283–447 | 867702–1032 |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.40 | 81.19–89.62 | 79.89–90.92 | 80.35 | 75.85–84.86 | 74.52–86.19 | — |
| Fouls | 11.80 | 8.94–14.66 | 8.06–15.54 | 12.15 | 9.20–15.10 | 8.29–16.01 | 23.9516.34–31.56 |
| Offsides | 1.52 | 0.31–2.72 | 0.00–3.07 | 1.32 | 0.16–2.48 | 0.00–2.81 | 2.830.00–5.88 |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 | 0.72–2.83 | 0.45–3.10 | 1.87 | 0.75–2.99 | 0.46–3.28 | 3.650.91–6.39 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.27 | 0.86–3.69 | 0.47–4.08 | 3.16 | 1.61–4.71 | 1.17–5.15 | 5.431.64–9.22 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
55%
25%
20%
Shots on target
72%
17%
Total shots
87%
Shots in box
82%
Blocked shots
65%
14%
21%
Corners
66%
23%
Fouls
43%
49%
Offsides
42%
25%
33%
Yellow cards
37%
22%
41%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
27%
16%
56%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+