Süper Lig· Regular Season - 22· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.83 | 0.00–1.79 | 0.00–2.05 | 2.04 | 1.18–2.90 | 0.94–3.15 | 2.870.54–5.20 |
| Shots on target | 3.23 | 1.38–5.09 | 0.88–5.59 | 6.58 | 4.87–8.29 | 4.40–8.76 | 9.815.28–14.34 |
| Total shots | 10.25 | 6.55–13.96 | 5.52–14.99 | 18.97 | 15.59–22.35 | 14.66–23.28 | 29.2220.18–38.27 |
| Shots in box | 6.13 | 3.61–8.65 | 2.75–9.51 | 10.64 | 8.34–12.94 | 7.54–13.74 | 16.7710.29–23.25 |
| Blocked shots | 2.79 | 1.21–4.38 | 0.68–4.91 | 4.23 | 2.81–5.64 | 2.33–6.13 | 7.023.00–11.04 |
| Corners | 3.19 | 0.99–5.40 | 0.39–5.99 | 6.25 | 4.27–8.23 | 3.74–8.77 | 9.454.13–14.76 |
| Possession % | 41.44 | 35.12–47.75 | 33.52–49.35 | 57.59 | 51.27–63.91 | 49.67–65.50 | — |
| Passes | 366 | 301–432 | 284–449 | 498 | 433–563 | 416–580 | 864699–1030 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.09 | 74.87–83.30 | 73.57–84.61 | 85.71 | 81.20–90.22 | 79.87–91.55 | — |
| Fouls | 11.46 | 8.60–14.32 | 7.72–15.20 | 12.69 | 9.75–15.64 | 8.83–16.56 | 24.1616.55–31.76 |
| Offsides | 2.44 | 1.23–3.65 | 0.89–3.99 | 1.29 | 0.13–2.46 | 0.00–2.79 | 3.730.68–6.78 |
| Yellow cards | 2.29 | 1.23–3.34 | 0.96–3.61 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 4.291.55–7.03 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 3.91 | 2.49–5.32 | 2.11–5.71 | 2.41 | 0.86–3.97 | 0.43–4.40 | 6.322.53–10.11 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
14%
20%
66%
Shots on target
82%
Total shots
94%
Shots in box
84%
Blocked shots
23%
13%
64%
Corners
80%
Fouls
36%
56%
Offsides
63%
18%
19%
Yellow cards
45%
20%
35%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
65%
14%
21%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+