Süper Lig· Regular Season - 23· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.16 | 1.20–3.13 | 0.94–3.39 | 1.15 | 0.29–2.01 | 0.05–2.26 | 3.320.99–5.65 |
| Shots on target | 6.22 | 4.36–8.07 | 3.86–8.57 | 4.03 | 2.33–5.74 | 1.86–6.21 | 10.255.72–14.78 |
| Total shots | 16.87 | 13.17–20.57 | 12.14–21.61 | 11.15 | 7.78–14.53 | 6.84–15.46 | 28.0218.98–37.07 |
| Shots in box | 11.49 | 8.97–14.00 | 8.10–14.87 | 6.77 | 4.47–9.07 | 3.67–9.87 | 18.2611.78–24.74 |
| Blocked shots | 4.51 | 2.92–6.09 | 2.39–6.63 | 2.79 | 1.37–4.20 | 0.88–4.69 | 7.293.27–11.31 |
| Corners | 6.11 | 3.90–8.31 | 3.31–8.91 | 3.93 | 1.95–5.91 | 1.42–6.45 | 10.044.72–15.36 |
| Possession % | 56.42 | 50.10–62.74 | 48.51–64.33 | 43.25 | 36.93–49.57 | 35.33–51.17 | — |
| Passes | 469 | 403–534 | 386–552 | 369 | 304–433 | 286–451 | 837672–1002 |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.45 | 82.23–90.66 | 80.93–91.97 | 76.25 | 71.74–80.75 | 70.41–82.08 | — |
| Fouls | 13.20 | 10.35–16.06 | 9.46–16.95 | 11.88 | 8.94–14.83 | 8.02–15.75 | 25.0917.48–32.69 |
| Offsides | 1.96 | 0.75–3.17 | 0.41–3.52 | 1.75 | 0.58–2.91 | 0.25–3.24 | 3.710.66–6.76 |
| Yellow cards | 1.68 | 0.63–2.74 | 0.36–3.01 | 2.22 | 1.10–3.34 | 0.81–3.63 | 3.911.17–6.65 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.79 | 1.37–4.20 | 0.98–4.59 | 3.46 | 1.91–5.02 | 1.48–5.45 | 6.252.46–10.04 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
60%
20%
19%
Shots on target
70%
20%
Total shots
84%
Shots in box
84%
Blocked shots
67%
20%
Corners
70%
20%
Fouls
56%
36%
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
Yellow cards
29%
20%
50%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
32%
16%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+