Süper Lig· Regular Season - 23· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 | 0.49–2.42 | 0.23–2.68 | 1.11 | 0.25–1.97 | 0.01–2.22 | 2.570.24–4.90 |
| Shots on target | 4.53 | 2.67–6.38 | 2.17–6.88 | 3.75 | 2.04–5.45 | 1.57–5.92 | 8.273.74–12.80 |
| Total shots | 14.02 | 10.32–17.72 | 9.29–18.75 | 12.18 | 8.80–15.55 | 7.87–16.49 | 26.2017.15–35.24 |
| Shots in box | 8.01 | 5.49–10.53 | 4.63–11.39 | 7.26 | 4.96–9.56 | 4.16–10.36 | 15.278.79–21.75 |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 | 1.91–5.08 | 1.38–5.61 | 2.99 | 1.57–4.40 | 1.08–4.89 | 6.482.46–10.50 |
| Corners | 4.98 | 2.78–7.19 | 2.18–7.78 | 4.70 | 2.72–6.68 | 2.19–7.22 | 9.694.37–15.00 |
| Possession % | 53.13 | 46.81–59.45 | 45.21–61.04 | 47.96 | 41.64–54.28 | 40.04–55.87 | — |
| Passes | 447 | 382–512 | 364–530 | 390 | 325–454 | 308–472 | 837672–1002 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82.72 | 78.51–86.94 | 77.21–88.24 | 81.79 | 77.28–86.30 | 75.95–87.63 | — |
| Fouls | 11.18 | 8.33–14.04 | 7.44–14.93 | 12.79 | 9.84–15.73 | 8.92–16.65 | 23.9716.37–31.58 |
| Offsides | 1.71 | 0.50–2.92 | 0.15–3.26 | 1.42 | 0.26–2.59 | 0.00–2.92 | 3.130.08–6.18 |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 | 0.92–3.03 | 0.65–3.30 | 2.25 | 1.12–3.37 | 0.83–3.66 | 4.221.48–6.96 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.61 | 1.19–4.02 | 0.80–4.41 | 3.07 | 1.51–4.62 | 1.08–5.05 | 5.671.88–9.46 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
45%
26%
29%
Shots on target
54%
14%
33%
Total shots
60%
32%
Shots in box
52%
37%
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
Corners
47%
40%
Fouls
33%
59%
Offsides
44%
23%
32%
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
34%
17%
49%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+