Süper Lig· Regular Season - 23· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.70 | 0.73–2.66 | 0.47–2.92 | 0.84 | 0.00–1.70 | 0.00–1.95 | 2.540.21–4.87 |
| Shots on target | 5.10 | 3.24–6.96 | 2.74–7.46 | 2.85 | 1.14–4.56 | 0.68–5.03 | 7.953.42–12.48 |
| Total shots | 16.06 | 12.36–19.77 | 11.33–20.80 | 9.84 | 6.47–13.22 | 5.53–14.15 | 25.9116.86–34.95 |
| Shots in box | 10.38 | 7.86–12.90 | 7.00–13.76 | 5.65 | 3.35–7.95 | 2.55–8.75 | 16.039.55–22.51 |
| Blocked shots | 4.69 | 3.11–6.27 | 2.57–6.81 | 2.34 | 0.92–3.75 | 0.44–4.24 | 7.033.01–11.05 |
| Corners | 5.43 | 3.22–7.63 | 2.63–8.23 | 3.60 | 1.62–5.58 | 1.09–6.12 | 9.033.71–14.34 |
| Possession % | 61.63 | 55.31–67.95 | 53.71–69.54 | 38.97 | 32.65–45.29 | 31.05–46.88 | — |
| Passes | 562 | 497–627 | 479–645 | 333 | 268–397 | 250–415 | 895730–1060 |
| Pass accuracy % | 86.44 | 82.22–90.65 | 80.92–91.95 | 77.19 | 72.68–81.70 | 71.35–83.03 | — |
| Fouls | 12.66 | 9.80–15.52 | 8.92–16.40 | 14.09 | 11.14–17.03 | 10.22–17.95 | 26.7519.14–34.35 |
| Offsides | 1.66 | 0.45–2.87 | 0.10–3.21 | 1.25 | 0.09–2.41 | 0.00–2.74 | 2.910.00–5.96 |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 | 0.58–2.69 | 0.31–2.96 | 2.09 | 0.97–3.21 | 0.68–3.50 | 3.720.99–6.46 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.160.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.21 | 0.79–3.62 | 0.40–4.01 | 3.51 | 1.95–5.06 | 1.52–5.49 | 5.711.92–9.50 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
58%
24%
18%
Shots on target
73%
16%
Total shots
87%
Shots in box
86%
Blocked shots
76%
14%
Corners
67%
22%
Fouls
35%
57%
Offsides
47%
24%
29%
Yellow cards
31%
21%
48%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
22%
15%
63%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+