Süper Lig· Regular Season - 24· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 | 0.64–2.56 | 0.38–2.82 | 1.02 | 0.16–1.88 | 0.00–2.13 | 2.620.29–4.95 |
| Shots on target | 4.59 | 2.73–6.45 | 2.24–6.95 | 3.78 | 2.07–5.49 | 1.60–5.96 | 8.373.84–12.90 |
| Total shots | 14.91 | 11.21–18.61 | 10.18–19.65 | 12.96 | 9.58–16.33 | 8.65–17.26 | 27.8718.82–36.91 |
| Shots in box | 9.43 | 6.92–11.95 | 6.05–12.82 | 6.97 | 4.67–9.27 | 3.87–10.07 | 16.409.92–22.88 |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 | 1.92–5.09 | 1.39–5.62 | 3.17 | 1.75–4.58 | 1.27–5.07 | 6.672.65–10.69 |
| Corners | 5.53 | 3.33–7.74 | 2.73–8.33 | 4.51 | 2.53–6.49 | 1.99–7.02 | 10.044.72–15.36 |
| Possession % | 45.53 | 39.22–51.85 | 37.62–53.45 | 54.17 | 47.85–60.49 | 46.26–62.09 | — |
| Passes | 330 | 265–395 | 247–413 | 411 | 346–475 | 328–493 | 741576–906 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.35 | 68.14–76.57 | 66.84–77.87 | 78.53 | 74.02–83.04 | 72.69–84.37 | — |
| Fouls | 16.88 | 14.03–19.74 | 13.14–20.63 | 11.69 | 8.74–14.63 | 7.82–15.55 | 28.5720.97–36.18 |
| Offsides | 2.37 | 1.16–3.58 | 0.82–3.93 | 1.23 | 0.07–2.39 | 0.00–2.72 | 3.600.55–6.65 |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 | 0.92–3.03 | 0.64–3.30 | 2.12 | 1.00–3.24 | 0.71–3.53 | 4.091.36–6.83 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.210.00–0.85 |
| GK saves | 2.43 | 1.01–3.84 | 0.63–4.23 | 3.11 | 1.56–4.66 | 1.12–5.10 | 5.541.75–9.33 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
25%
24%
Shots on target
54%
14%
32%
Total shots
61%
32%
Shots in box
69%
23%
Blocked shots
47%
16%
37%
Corners
56%
31%
Fouls
81%
14%
Offsides
63%
19%
18%
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
30%
17%
53%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+