Süper Lig· Regular Season - 24· · Papara Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.93 | 0.97–2.90 | 0.71–3.16 | 1.28 | 0.42–2.14 | 0.17–2.38 | 3.210.88–5.54 |
| Shots on target | 6.26 | 4.41–8.12 | 3.91–8.62 | 3.28 | 1.57–4.99 | 1.10–5.45 | 9.545.01–14.07 |
| Total shots | 18.58 | 14.88–22.29 | 13.85–23.32 | 9.66 | 6.28–13.04 | 5.35–13.97 | 28.2419.20–37.29 |
| Shots in box | 10.77 | 8.26–13.29 | 7.39–14.15 | 6.35 | 4.05–8.65 | 3.25–9.45 | 17.1210.64–23.60 |
| Blocked shots | 4.56 | 2.97–6.14 | 2.44–6.68 | 2.93 | 1.52–4.35 | 1.03–4.84 | 7.493.47–11.51 |
| Corners | 6.82 | 4.62–9.03 | 4.02–9.62 | 3.91 | 1.93–5.89 | 1.39–6.42 | 10.735.42–16.05 |
| Possession % | 52.64 | 46.32–58.96 | 44.73–60.56 | 47.68 | 41.36–54.00 | 39.77–55.60 | — |
| Passes | 453 | 388–518 | 370–536 | 419 | 354–483 | 337–501 | 872707–1037 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.83 | 75.61–84.04 | 74.31–85.34 | 79.82 | 75.32–84.33 | 73.99–85.66 | — |
| Fouls | 11.60 | 8.75–14.46 | 7.86–15.35 | 14.14 | 11.20–17.09 | 10.28–18.00 | 25.7518.14–33.35 |
| Offsides | 1.53 | 0.32–2.74 | 0.00–3.08 | 1.65 | 0.48–2.81 | 0.15–3.14 | 3.180.13–6.23 |
| Yellow cards | 1.73 | 0.68–2.79 | 0.41–3.06 | 2.09 | 0.96–3.21 | 0.67–3.50 | 3.821.08–6.56 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.13 | 0.00–0.32 | 0.00–0.46 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.18 | 0.76–3.59 | 0.37–3.98 | 3.83 | 2.27–5.38 | 1.84–5.81 | 6.012.22–9.80 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
53%
22%
25%
Shots on target
79%
Total shots
95%
Shots in box
83%
Blocked shots
66%
22%
Corners
77%
15%
Fouls
27%
66%
Offsides
36%
23%
41%
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
19%
13%
68%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+