Süper Lig· Regular Season - 26· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 | 0.20–2.13 | 0.00–2.39 | 1.63 | 0.77–2.49 | 0.52–2.73 | 2.790.46–5.12 |
| Shots on target | 3.84 | 1.99–5.70 | 1.49–6.20 | 5.26 | 3.55–6.96 | 3.08–7.43 | 9.104.57–13.63 |
| Total shots | 12.17 | 8.46–15.87 | 7.43–16.90 | 14.78 | 11.40–18.16 | 10.47–19.09 | 26.9517.90–35.99 |
| Shots in box | 7.04 | 4.52–9.56 | 3.66–10.42 | 9.84 | 7.54–12.14 | 6.74–12.94 | 16.8810.40–23.36 |
| Blocked shots | 2.88 | 1.30–4.47 | 0.77–5.00 | 3.64 | 2.23–5.06 | 1.74–5.54 | 6.532.51–10.55 |
| Corners | 4.46 | 2.25–6.67 | 1.66–7.26 | 5.42 | 3.44–7.39 | 2.90–7.93 | 9.884.56–15.19 |
| Possession % | 43.02 | 36.70–49.33 | 35.10–50.93 | 55.43 | 49.11–61.75 | 47.52–63.35 | — |
| Passes | 367 | 302–433 | 284–450 | 479 | 414–543 | 396–561 | 846681–1011 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.02 | 72.81–81.24 | 71.51–82.54 | 83.65 | 79.14–88.16 | 77.81–89.49 | — |
| Fouls | 12.19 | 9.33–15.04 | 8.44–15.93 | 12.14 | 9.20–15.09 | 8.28–16.00 | 24.3316.72–31.93 |
| Offsides | 1.97 | 0.76–3.18 | 0.42–3.52 | 2.22 | 1.06–3.38 | 0.73–3.72 | 4.191.14–7.24 |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 | 1.15–3.27 | 0.88–3.54 | 2.31 | 1.19–3.43 | 0.90–3.72 | 4.521.79–7.26 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 3.25 | 1.84–4.67 | 1.45–5.06 | 2.79 | 1.23–4.34 | 0.80–4.77 | 6.042.25–9.83 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
27%
25%
48%
Shots on target
26%
62%
Total shots
27%
66%
Shots in box
21%
71%
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
Corners
32%
56%
Fouls
46%
46%
Offsides
35%
20%
45%
Yellow cards
38%
19%
42%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
49%
16%
34%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+