Süper Lig· Regular Season - 26· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.10 | 0.14–2.07 | 0.00–2.33 | 1.19 | 0.33–2.05 | 0.09–2.30 | 2.300.00–4.63 |
| Shots on target | 4.17 | 2.31–6.03 | 1.81–6.52 | 3.82 | 2.11–5.52 | 1.64–5.99 | 7.993.45–12.52 |
| Total shots | 12.89 | 9.19–16.60 | 8.16–17.63 | 11.90 | 8.52–15.28 | 7.59–16.21 | 24.7915.75–33.83 |
| Shots in box | 6.97 | 4.45–9.49 | 3.59–10.35 | 7.31 | 5.01–9.61 | 4.21–10.41 | 14.287.80–20.76 |
| Blocked shots | 3.19 | 1.60–4.77 | 1.07–5.31 | 2.86 | 1.45–4.28 | 0.96–4.76 | 6.052.03–10.07 |
| Corners | 4.47 | 2.27–6.68 | 1.67–7.27 | 4.51 | 2.53–6.48 | 1.99–7.02 | 8.983.66–14.29 |
| Possession % | 48.13 | 41.81–54.45 | 40.22–56.04 | 51.63 | 45.31–57.95 | 43.71–59.55 | — |
| Passes | 406 | 340–471 | 323–489 | 444 | 380–509 | 362–526 | 850685–1015 |
| Pass accuracy % | 79.84 | 75.63–84.06 | 74.33–85.36 | 81.31 | 76.80–85.82 | 75.47–87.15 | — |
| Fouls | 13.77 | 10.91–16.63 | 10.03–17.51 | 12.46 | 9.52–15.41 | 8.60–16.32 | 26.2318.63–33.84 |
| Offsides | 1.82 | 0.61–3.03 | 0.26–3.37 | 1.39 | 0.23–2.55 | 0.00–2.89 | 3.210.16–6.26 |
| Yellow cards | 1.81 | 0.76–2.87 | 0.49–3.14 | 2.10 | 0.98–3.22 | 0.69–3.51 | 3.921.18–6.65 |
| Red cards | 0.07 | 0.00–0.22 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 2.45 | 1.04–3.87 | 0.65–4.26 | 2.85 | 1.29–4.40 | 0.86–4.83 | 5.301.51–9.09 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
28%
38%
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
Total shots
54%
38%
Shots in box
41%
48%
Blocked shots
47%
16%
37%
Corners
43%
14%
44%
Fouls
56%
36%
Offsides
48%
23%
30%
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
35%
18%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+