Süper Lig· Regular Season - 26· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 | 0.21–2.14 | 0.00–2.40 | 1.40 | 0.54–2.26 | 0.30–2.51 | 2.580.25–4.91 |
| Shots on target | 4.25 | 2.39–6.10 | 1.89–6.60 | 4.74 | 3.03–6.45 | 2.56–6.91 | 8.984.45–13.52 |
| Total shots | 13.22 | 9.52–16.92 | 8.48–17.95 | 14.38 | 11.00–17.76 | 10.07–18.69 | 27.6018.56–36.64 |
| Shots in box | 8.49 | 5.98–11.01 | 5.11–11.87 | 8.16 | 5.86–10.46 | 5.06–11.25 | 16.6510.17–23.13 |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 | 1.84–5.01 | 1.30–5.54 | 3.57 | 2.15–4.98 | 1.67–5.47 | 6.992.97–11.01 |
| Corners | 4.12 | 1.91–6.32 | 1.32–6.92 | 5.15 | 3.17–7.12 | 2.63–7.66 | 9.263.95–14.58 |
| Possession % | 46.59 | 40.27–52.91 | 38.68–54.50 | 53.87 | 47.55–60.19 | 45.96–61.79 | — |
| Passes | 418 | 352–483 | 335–501 | 456 | 391–520 | 374–538 | 873708–1039 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.26 | 72.05–80.48 | 70.75–81.78 | 82.36 | 77.86–86.87 | 76.53–88.20 | — |
| Fouls | 11.92 | 9.06–14.77 | 8.17–15.66 | 13.53 | 10.59–16.48 | 9.67–17.39 | 25.4517.84–33.05 |
| Offsides | 2.71 | 1.50–3.92 | 1.16–4.27 | 1.98 | 0.82–3.14 | 0.48–3.47 | 4.691.64–7.74 |
| Yellow cards | 2.33 | 1.27–3.39 | 1.00–3.66 | 2.33 | 1.21–3.45 | 0.92–3.74 | 4.661.92–7.39 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.190.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.88 | 1.46–4.29 | 1.07–4.68 | 3.20 | 1.65–4.75 | 1.22–5.19 | 6.082.29–9.87 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
32%
26%
42%
Shots on target
37%
13%
50%
Total shots
38%
55%
Shots in box
48%
42%
Blocked shots
40%
15%
44%
Corners
31%
57%
Fouls
34%
59%
Offsides
54%
18%
28%
Yellow cards
41%
19%
40%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
37%
16%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+