Süper Lig· Regular Season - 26· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 | 0.21–2.14 | 0.00–2.40 | 1.29 | 0.43–2.15 | 0.18–2.39 | 2.460.13–4.79 |
| Shots on target | 3.88 | 2.02–5.73 | 1.52–6.23 | 4.40 | 2.69–6.10 | 2.22–6.57 | 8.273.74–12.80 |
| Total shots | 12.80 | 9.10–16.50 | 8.06–17.53 | 13.76 | 10.38–17.14 | 9.45–18.07 | 26.5617.51–35.60 |
| Shots in box | 7.80 | 5.28–10.32 | 4.42–11.18 | 8.35 | 6.05–10.65 | 5.25–11.45 | 16.159.67–22.63 |
| Blocked shots | 3.16 | 1.57–4.74 | 1.04–5.27 | 3.03 | 1.61–4.44 | 1.13–4.93 | 6.182.16–10.20 |
| Corners | 4.13 | 1.92–6.33 | 1.33–6.93 | 4.79 | 2.81–6.77 | 2.27–7.30 | 8.923.60–14.23 |
| Possession % | 53.08 | 46.76–59.39 | 45.16–60.99 | 46.48 | 40.16–52.80 | 38.57–54.40 | — |
| Passes | 451 | 386–517 | 369–534 | 367 | 302–431 | 285–449 | 818653–983 |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.22 | 79.01–87.44 | 77.71–88.74 | 79.31 | 74.80–83.82 | 73.47–85.15 | — |
| Fouls | 12.25 | 9.39–15.10 | 8.50–15.99 | 13.10 | 10.16–16.05 | 9.24–16.97 | 25.3517.74–32.95 |
| Offsides | 1.69 | 0.48–2.89 | 0.13–3.24 | 1.32 | 0.15–2.48 | 0.00–2.81 | 3.000.00–6.05 |
| Yellow cards | 1.82 | 0.76–2.87 | 0.49–3.14 | 2.12 | 0.99–3.24 | 0.70–3.53 | 3.931.19–6.67 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.53 | 1.12–3.95 | 0.73–4.34 | 2.71 | 1.16–4.26 | 0.73–4.70 | 5.251.46–9.03 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
27%
39%
Shots on target
36%
14%
50%
Total shots
39%
54%
Shots in box
40%
50%
Blocked shots
44%
16%
40%
Corners
35%
13%
52%
Fouls
39%
53%
Offsides
46%
24%
30%
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
38%
18%
44%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+