Süper Lig· Regular Season - 28· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.86 | 0.00–1.82 | 0.00–2.08 | 2.43 | 1.57–3.29 | 1.32–3.53 | 3.280.95–5.61 |
| Shots on target | 2.71 | 0.86–4.57 | 0.36–5.07 | 7.21 | 5.51–8.92 | 5.04–9.39 | 9.935.40–14.46 |
| Total shots | 9.63 | 5.92–13.33 | 4.89–14.36 | 19.59 | 16.21–22.97 | 15.28–23.90 | 29.2220.17–38.26 |
| Shots in box | 6.06 | 3.54–8.58 | 2.68–9.44 | 13.21 | 10.91–15.51 | 10.12–16.31 | 19.2712.79–25.75 |
| Blocked shots | 2.55 | 0.97–4.14 | 0.43–4.67 | 4.33 | 2.92–5.75 | 2.43–6.23 | 6.892.87–10.91 |
| Corners | 3.26 | 1.05–5.46 | 0.46–6.06 | 7.70 | 5.72–9.68 | 5.18–10.21 | 10.955.64–16.27 |
| Possession % | 35.97 | 29.65–42.28 | 28.05–43.88 | 64.26 | 57.94–70.58 | 56.34–72.18 | — |
| Passes | 282 | 217–347 | 199–365 | 564 | 499–629 | 482–646 | 846681–1011 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.67 | 65.45–73.88 | 64.15–75.18 | 84.48 | 79.97–88.99 | 78.64–90.32 | — |
| Fouls | 12.43 | 9.57–15.29 | 8.69–16.17 | 11.73 | 8.79–14.68 | 7.87–15.60 | 24.1616.56–31.77 |
| Offsides | 2.16 | 0.95–3.37 | 0.60–3.71 | 1.63 | 0.47–2.79 | 0.13–3.12 | 3.790.74–6.83 |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 | 1.12–3.23 | 0.85–3.51 | 1.70 | 0.58–2.82 | 0.29–3.11 | 3.881.14–6.62 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.150.00–0.79 |
| GK saves | 4.27 | 2.85–5.68 | 2.46–6.07 | 2.28 | 0.73–3.83 | 0.29–4.27 | 6.552.76–10.34 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
17%
72%
Shots on target
90%
Total shots
96%
Shots in box
94%
Blocked shots
19%
69%
Corners
89%
Fouls
52%
40%
Offsides
50%
21%
29%
Yellow cards
49%
21%
31%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
72%
16%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+