Süper Lig· Regular Season - 30· · Papara Park· referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.55 | 1.58–3.51 | 1.32–3.77 | 0.98 | 0.12–1.84 | 0.00–2.08 | 3.521.19–5.85 |
| Shots on target | 6.84 | 4.99–8.70 | 4.49–9.20 | 3.38 | 1.68–5.09 | 1.21–5.56 | 10.235.69–14.76 |
| Total shots | 20.76 | 17.06–24.47 | 16.03–25.50 | 10.29 | 6.91–13.66 | 5.98–14.60 | 31.0522.01–40.09 |
| Shots in box | 12.96 | 10.44–15.48 | 9.58–16.34 | 6.51 | 4.21–8.82 | 3.42–9.61 | 19.4713.00–25.95 |
| Blocked shots | 4.95 | 3.37–6.53 | 2.83–7.07 | 2.61 | 1.20–4.02 | 0.71–4.51 | 7.563.54–11.58 |
| Corners | 7.64 | 5.44–9.85 | 4.84–10.44 | 4.30 | 2.32–6.28 | 1.78–6.81 | 11.946.62–17.26 |
| Possession % | 65.25 | 58.93–71.56 | 57.33–73.16 | 34.09 | 27.77–40.41 | 26.17–42.00 | — |
| Passes | 530 | 465–596 | 448–613 | 250 | 186–315 | 168–333 | 781616–946 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.66 | 76.45–84.88 | 75.15–86.18 | 65.64 | 61.13–70.14 | 59.80–71.47 | — |
| Fouls | 10.02 | 7.17–12.88 | 6.28–13.77 | 16.39 | 13.45–19.34 | 12.53–20.26 | 26.4218.81–34.02 |
| Offsides | 1.50 | 0.29–2.71 | 0.00–3.05 | 1.86 | 0.69–3.02 | 0.36–3.35 | 3.350.30–6.40 |
| Yellow cards | 1.58 | 0.53–2.64 | 0.25–2.91 | 2.04 | 0.92–3.16 | 0.63–3.45 | 3.620.88–6.36 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.33 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.130.00–0.77 |
| GK saves | 2.06 | 0.65–3.48 | 0.26–3.87 | 4.17 | 2.62–5.73 | 2.19–6.16 | 6.242.45–10.02 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
71%
16%
Shots on target
83%
Total shots
97%
Shots in box
91%
Blocked shots
75%
15%
Corners
80%
Fouls
87%
Offsides
31%
22%
46%
Yellow cards
30%
21%
49%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
14%
74%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+