Süper Lig· Regular Season - 32· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 | 0.59–2.52 | 0.33–2.78 | 0.86 | 0.00–1.72 | 0.00–1.96 | 2.410.08–4.74 |
| Shots on target | 4.90 | 3.04–6.76 | 2.54–7.25 | 2.71 | 1.01–4.42 | 0.54–4.89 | 7.613.08–12.14 |
| Total shots | 16.08 | 12.37–19.78 | 11.34–20.81 | 9.74 | 6.36–13.12 | 5.43–14.05 | 25.8216.77–34.86 |
| Shots in box | 9.10 | 6.58–11.61 | 5.72–12.48 | 5.42 | 3.12–7.72 | 2.32–8.52 | 14.528.04–21.00 |
| Blocked shots | 3.50 | 1.92–5.09 | 1.39–5.62 | 2.39 | 0.98–3.81 | 0.49–4.29 | 5.901.88–9.92 |
| Corners | 5.19 | 2.98–7.39 | 2.39–7.99 | 3.81 | 1.83–5.79 | 1.30–6.33 | 9.003.68–14.32 |
| Possession % | 55.42 | 49.10–61.74 | 47.51–63.33 | 44.93 | 38.62–51.25 | 37.02–52.85 | — |
| Passes | 470 | 404–535 | 387–553 | 397 | 332–461 | 315–479 | 867702–1032 |
| Pass accuracy % | 85.40 | 81.18–89.62 | 79.88–90.92 | 81.84 | 77.33–86.35 | 76.00–87.68 | — |
| Fouls | 12.41 | 9.56–15.27 | 8.67–16.16 | 12.18 | 9.24–15.13 | 8.32–16.05 | 24.6016.99–32.20 |
| Offsides | 1.55 | 0.34–2.76 | 0.00–3.10 | 1.40 | 0.23–2.56 | 0.00–2.89 | 2.950.00–6.00 |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 | 0.85–2.96 | 0.58–3.24 | 1.66 | 0.54–2.78 | 0.25–3.07 | 3.570.83–6.31 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 2.11 | 0.70–3.53 | 0.31–3.91 | 3.23 | 1.67–4.78 | 1.24–5.21 | 5.341.55–9.13 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
26%
21%
Shots on target
73%
16%
Total shots
88%
Shots in box
80%
13%
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
Corners
61%
26%
Fouls
48%
44%
Offsides
41%
24%
34%
Yellow cards
44%
22%
34%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
24%
16%
60%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+