Süper Lig· Regular Season - 33· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.21 | 0.24–2.17 | 0.00–2.43 | 1.77 | 0.91–2.63 | 0.66–2.88 | 2.980.65–5.31 |
| Shots on target | 4.09 | 2.23–5.94 | 1.73–6.44 | 5.42 | 3.72–7.13 | 3.25–7.60 | 9.514.98–14.04 |
| Total shots | 13.13 | 9.43–16.83 | 8.40–17.87 | 16.11 | 12.73–19.49 | 11.80–20.42 | 29.2420.19–38.28 |
| Shots in box | 7.56 | 5.04–10.07 | 4.18–10.94 | 10.77 | 8.47–13.08 | 7.68–13.87 | 18.3311.85–24.81 |
| Blocked shots | 3.33 | 1.74–4.91 | 1.21–5.45 | 4.06 | 2.64–5.47 | 2.16–5.96 | 7.383.36–11.40 |
| Corners | 4.33 | 2.12–6.53 | 1.53–7.13 | 5.73 | 3.76–7.71 | 3.22–8.25 | 10.064.75–15.38 |
| Possession % | 43.70 | 37.38–50.02 | 35.79–51.61 | 57.31 | 50.99–63.63 | 49.40–65.23 | — |
| Passes | 336 | 270–401 | 253–419 | 479 | 414–543 | 396–561 | 814649–979 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.49 | 74.27–82.70 | 72.97–84.00 | 84.72 | 80.22–89.23 | 78.89–90.56 | — |
| Fouls | 13.01 | 10.15–15.87 | 9.27–16.75 | 13.67 | 10.72–16.61 | 9.80–17.53 | 26.6819.07–34.28 |
| Offsides | 2.28 | 1.07–3.49 | 0.72–3.83 | 1.47 | 0.30–2.63 | 0.00–2.96 | 3.750.70–6.80 |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 | 1.01–3.12 | 0.74–3.40 | 1.85 | 0.73–2.97 | 0.44–3.26 | 3.921.18–6.66 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.44 | 2.02–4.85 | 1.63–5.24 | 2.76 | 1.20–4.31 | 0.77–4.74 | 6.202.41–9.99 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
26%
23%
51%
Shots on target
27%
61%
Total shots
26%
68%
Shots in box
19%
74%
Blocked shots
32%
14%
53%
Corners
27%
61%
Fouls
41%
51%
Offsides
56%
20%
24%
Yellow cards
44%
21%
35%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
53%
16%
32%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+