Super League 1· Regular Season - 8· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 | 0.37–2.30 | 0.11–2.56 | 1.20 | 0.34–2.06 | 0.09–2.30 | 2.530.20–4.86 |
| Shots on target | 4.01 | 2.15–5.87 | 1.65–6.36 | 3.86 | 2.16–5.57 | 1.69–6.04 | 7.873.34–12.40 |
| Total shots | 12.33 | 8.63–16.04 | 7.60–17.07 | 11.99 | 8.61–15.37 | 7.68–16.30 | 24.3215.28–33.36 |
| Shots in box | 8.36 | 5.85–10.88 | 4.98–11.75 | 7.55 | 5.25–9.85 | 4.45–10.65 | 15.929.44–22.40 |
| Blocked shots | 2.96 | 1.38–4.55 | 0.84–5.08 | 3.51 | 2.10–4.93 | 1.61–5.41 | 6.472.45–10.49 |
| Corners | 5.50 | 3.30–7.71 | 2.70–8.30 | 4.60 | 2.62–6.58 | 2.08–7.11 | 10.104.79–15.42 |
| Possession % | 46.30 | 39.98–52.61 | 38.38–54.21 | 53.54 | 47.22–59.86 | 45.62–61.46 | — |
| Passes | 399 | 333–464 | 316–482 | 436 | 372–501 | 354–519 | 835670–1000 |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.13 | 64.92–73.35 | 63.62–74.65 | 68.69 | 64.18–73.19 | 62.85–74.52 | — |
| Fouls | 13.76 | 10.90–16.62 | 10.02–17.50 | 13.33 | 10.38–16.27 | 9.46–17.19 | 27.0819.48–34.69 |
| Offsides | 1.98 | 0.77–3.18 | 0.42–3.53 | 1.55 | 0.38–2.71 | 0.05–3.04 | 3.520.47–6.57 |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 | 1.04–3.15 | 0.77–3.43 | 2.02 | 0.90–3.14 | 0.61–3.43 | 4.121.38–6.85 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.170.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.48 | 1.07–3.90 | 0.68–4.29 | 2.69 | 1.14–4.25 | 0.71–4.68 | 5.181.39–8.97 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
40%
27%
33%
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
Total shots
49%
43%
Shots in box
53%
37%
Blocked shots
34%
16%
51%
Corners
55%
33%
Fouls
49%
43%
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
Yellow cards
41%
20%
38%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
37%
18%
45%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+