Super League 1· Regular Season - 8· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 | 0.10–2.03 | 0.00–2.29 | 1.48 | 0.62–2.34 | 0.37–2.59 | 2.540.21–4.87 |
| Shots on target | 3.59 | 1.73–5.44 | 1.23–5.94 | 4.87 | 3.16–6.58 | 2.70–7.05 | 8.463.93–12.99 |
| Total shots | 9.46 | 5.76–13.16 | 4.73–14.19 | 12.94 | 9.56–16.32 | 8.63–17.25 | 22.4013.36–31.44 |
| Shots in box | 6.74 | 4.23–9.26 | 3.36–10.12 | 8.40 | 6.10–10.70 | 5.30–11.50 | 15.148.67–21.62 |
| Blocked shots | 2.65 | 1.06–4.23 | 0.53–4.76 | 3.09 | 1.68–4.51 | 1.19–4.99 | 5.741.72–9.76 |
| Corners | 4.32 | 2.12–6.53 | 1.52–7.12 | 4.88 | 2.91–6.86 | 2.37–7.40 | 9.213.89–14.52 |
| Possession % | 47.09 | 40.77–53.41 | 39.17–55.00 | 52.75 | 46.43–59.07 | 44.83–60.66 | — |
| Passes | 385 | 319–450 | 302–468 | 422 | 358–487 | 340–504 | 807642–972 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.36 | 64.15–72.58 | 62.85–73.88 | 71.79 | 67.28–76.29 | 65.95–77.62 | — |
| Fouls | 13.74 | 10.88–16.59 | 9.99–17.48 | 15.34 | 12.40–18.29 | 11.48–19.20 | 29.0821.47–36.68 |
| Offsides | 2.22 | 1.01–3.43 | 0.67–3.77 | 3.38 | 2.22–4.55 | 1.89–4.88 | 5.602.55–8.65 |
| Yellow cards | 2.44 | 1.39–3.50 | 1.12–3.77 | 2.75 | 1.63–3.87 | 1.34–4.16 | 5.202.46–7.94 |
| Red cards | 0.12 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.230.00–0.87 |
| GK saves | 2.86 | 1.44–4.27 | 1.05–4.66 | 2.65 | 1.10–4.20 | 0.66–4.64 | 5.511.72–9.30 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
27%
26%
47%
Shots on target
27%
60%
Total shots
20%
74%
Shots in box
29%
62%
Blocked shots
34%
17%
49%
Corners
36%
13%
51%
Fouls
35%
58%
Offsides
24%
15%
61%
Yellow cards
36%
18%
46%
Red cards
81%
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+