Super League 1· Regular Season - 8· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 | 0.17–2.09 | 0.00–2.35 | 1.55 | 0.69–2.41 | 0.44–2.65 | 2.680.35–5.01 |
| Shots on target | 3.63 | 1.77–5.48 | 1.27–5.98 | 4.24 | 2.53–5.95 | 2.06–6.42 | 7.873.34–12.40 |
| Total shots | 10.46 | 6.76–14.16 | 5.73–15.20 | 12.04 | 8.66–15.42 | 7.73–16.35 | 22.5013.45–31.54 |
| Shots in box | 6.69 | 4.18–9.21 | 3.31–10.08 | 8.56 | 6.26–10.86 | 5.46–11.66 | 15.268.78–21.74 |
| Blocked shots | 3.16 | 1.57–4.74 | 1.04–5.28 | 3.47 | 2.05–4.88 | 1.56–5.37 | 6.622.60–10.64 |
| Corners | 4.55 | 2.35–6.76 | 1.75–7.35 | 5.04 | 3.07–7.02 | 2.53–7.56 | 9.604.28–14.91 |
| Possession % | 44.54 | 38.23–50.86 | 36.63–52.46 | 53.72 | 47.40–60.04 | 45.80–61.63 | — |
| Passes | 384 | 319–450 | 301–467 | 464 | 399–528 | 381–546 | 848683–1013 |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.68 | 67.47–75.90 | 66.17–77.20 | 76.19 | 71.68–80.69 | 70.35–82.02 | — |
| Fouls | 12.14 | 9.28–15.00 | 8.40–15.88 | 13.81 | 10.87–16.76 | 9.95–17.68 | 25.9518.35–33.56 |
| Offsides | 1.75 | 0.54–2.96 | 0.20–3.31 | 1.92 | 0.76–3.08 | 0.42–3.41 | 3.670.62–6.72 |
| Yellow cards | 2.45 | 1.40–3.51 | 1.13–3.78 | 2.54 | 1.42–3.66 | 1.13–3.95 | 4.992.25–7.73 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.51 | 1.09–3.92 | 0.70–4.31 | 2.49 | 0.94–4.04 | 0.50–4.48 | 5.001.21–8.79 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
28%
25%
47%
Shots on target
34%
14%
51%
Total shots
33%
59%
Shots in box
27%
64%
Blocked shots
37%
16%
47%
Corners
37%
50%
Fouls
33%
59%
Offsides
36%
22%
43%
Yellow cards
39%
18%
42%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
41%
18%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+