Super League 1· Regular Season - 9· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 | 0.42–2.34 | 0.16–2.60 | 1.21 | 0.35–2.07 | 0.11–2.32 | 2.590.26–4.92 |
| Shots on target | 4.32 | 2.46–6.18 | 1.96–6.68 | 3.81 | 2.11–5.52 | 1.64–5.99 | 8.133.60–12.67 |
| Total shots | 12.54 | 8.84–16.24 | 7.80–17.27 | 11.63 | 8.25–15.01 | 7.32–15.94 | 24.1715.13–33.21 |
| Shots in box | 8.60 | 6.08–11.11 | 5.22–11.98 | 8.01 | 5.71–10.32 | 4.92–11.11 | 16.6110.13–23.09 |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 | 1.79–4.95 | 1.25–5.49 | 3.16 | 1.74–4.57 | 1.26–5.06 | 6.532.51–10.55 |
| Corners | 4.87 | 2.66–7.08 | 2.07–7.67 | 4.61 | 2.63–6.59 | 2.09–7.12 | 9.484.16–14.79 |
| Possession % | 54.68 | 48.36–61.00 | 46.77–62.60 | 44.64 | 38.32–50.96 | 36.72–52.56 | — |
| Passes | 453 | 387–518 | 370–536 | 373 | 309–438 | 291–455 | 826661–991 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.07 | 69.85–78.28 | 68.55–79.59 | 68.26 | 63.75–72.76 | 62.42–74.10 | — |
| Fouls | 14.23 | 11.37–17.09 | 10.49–17.97 | 15.80 | 12.85–18.74 | 11.94–19.66 | 30.0322.42–37.63 |
| Offsides | 1.74 | 0.54–2.95 | 0.19–3.30 | 1.83 | 0.67–2.99 | 0.34–3.33 | 3.580.53–6.62 |
| Yellow cards | 2.26 | 1.20–3.31 | 0.93–3.58 | 2.27 | 1.15–3.39 | 0.86–3.68 | 4.521.79–7.26 |
| Red cards | 0.12 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.220.00–0.86 |
| GK saves | 2.50 | 1.08–3.91 | 0.69–4.30 | 3.11 | 1.56–4.66 | 1.12–5.10 | 5.611.82–9.40 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
41%
26%
33%
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
Total shots
53%
39%
Shots in box
51%
39%
Blocked shots
45%
16%
39%
Corners
47%
13%
40%
Fouls
35%
58%
Offsides
37%
22%
41%
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
Red cards
81%
GK saves
32%
17%
52%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+