Super League 1· Regular Season - 11· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.73 | 0.00–1.70 | 0.00–1.96 | 2.11 | 1.25–2.97 | 1.00–3.22 | 2.840.51–5.17 |
| Shots on target | 3.32 | 1.47–5.18 | 0.97–5.68 | 5.26 | 3.55–6.97 | 3.08–7.43 | 8.584.05–13.11 |
| Total shots | 10.93 | 7.23–14.63 | 6.20–15.66 | 15.72 | 12.34–19.10 | 11.41–20.03 | 26.6517.60–35.69 |
| Shots in box | 5.82 | 3.30–8.34 | 2.44–9.20 | 11.32 | 9.02–13.62 | 8.22–14.42 | 17.1410.66–23.61 |
| Blocked shots | 2.50 | 0.91–4.08 | 0.38–4.61 | 4.67 | 3.26–6.09 | 2.77–6.57 | 7.173.15–11.19 |
| Corners | 3.80 | 1.59–6.00 | 0.99–6.60 | 5.99 | 4.01–7.97 | 3.48–8.51 | 9.794.47–15.10 |
| Possession % | 38.78 | 32.46–45.10 | 30.87–46.70 | 61.13 | 54.81–67.45 | 53.22–69.05 | — |
| Passes | 328 | 262–393 | 245–411 | 506 | 441–570 | 424–588 | 833668–999 |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.34 | 62.12–70.55 | 60.82–71.85 | 77.57 | 73.06–82.08 | 71.73–83.41 | — |
| Fouls | 14.71 | 11.85–17.56 | 10.96–18.45 | 13.21 | 10.26–16.15 | 9.34–17.07 | 27.9120.31–35.52 |
| Offsides | 1.71 | 0.50–2.91 | 0.15–3.26 | 1.26 | 0.10–2.42 | 0.00–2.76 | 2.970.00–6.02 |
| Yellow cards | 2.36 | 1.31–3.42 | 1.03–3.69 | 2.04 | 0.92–3.16 | 0.63–3.45 | 4.401.66–7.14 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.170.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 3.42 | 2.01–4.83 | 1.62–5.22 | 2.04 | 0.48–3.59 | 0.05–4.02 | 5.461.67–9.24 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
19%
69%
Shots on target
20%
69%
Total shots
15%
80%
Shots in box
89%
Blocked shots
15%
74%
Corners
19%
71%
Fouls
57%
35%
Offsides
48%
24%
28%
Yellow cards
46%
19%
34%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
65%
15%
21%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+