Super League 1· Regular Season - 12· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.09 | 0.13–2.06 | 0.00–2.32 | 1.13 | 0.27–1.99 | 0.03–2.24 | 2.230.00–4.56 |
| Shots on target | 4.00 | 2.14–5.85 | 1.64–6.35 | 3.90 | 2.20–5.61 | 1.73–6.08 | 7.903.37–12.43 |
| Total shots | 11.92 | 8.21–15.62 | 7.18–16.65 | 10.93 | 7.55–14.31 | 6.62–15.24 | 22.8513.81–31.89 |
| Shots in box | 7.63 | 5.12–10.15 | 4.25–11.01 | 7.15 | 4.85–9.45 | 4.05–10.25 | 14.788.31–21.26 |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 | 1.84–5.01 | 1.31–5.54 | 2.73 | 1.31–4.14 | 0.82–4.63 | 6.152.13–10.17 |
| Corners | 4.56 | 2.35–6.76 | 1.76–7.36 | 4.35 | 2.38–6.33 | 1.84–6.87 | 8.913.60–14.23 |
| Possession % | 50.29 | 43.97–56.61 | 42.38–58.21 | 49.81 | 43.49–56.13 | 41.90–57.73 | — |
| Passes | 405 | 339–470 | 322–488 | 409 | 344–473 | 326–491 | 813648–978 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.01 | 65.80–74.23 | 64.50–75.53 | 69.12 | 64.61–73.62 | 63.28–74.95 | — |
| Fouls | 14.20 | 11.34–17.06 | 10.46–17.94 | 14.23 | 11.29–17.18 | 10.37–18.10 | 28.4320.83–36.04 |
| Offsides | 1.75 | 0.54–2.96 | 0.20–3.30 | 2.46 | 1.30–3.62 | 0.96–3.95 | 4.211.16–7.26 |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 | 0.90–3.01 | 0.63–3.28 | 2.39 | 1.27–3.51 | 0.98–3.80 | 4.341.61–7.08 |
| Red cards | 0.11 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.210.00–0.85 |
| GK saves | 2.36 | 0.95–3.78 | 0.56–4.17 | 2.77 | 1.22–4.33 | 0.79–4.76 | 5.141.35–8.93 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
35%
29%
37%
Shots on target
44%
14%
41%
Total shots
54%
38%
Shots in box
50%
40%
Blocked shots
53%
16%
31%
Corners
46%
14%
41%
Fouls
46%
47%
Offsides
27%
19%
54%
Yellow cards
32%
19%
48%
Red cards
82%
GK saves
34%
18%
48%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+