Super League 1· Regular Season - 13· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 | 0.40–2.32 | 0.14–2.58 | 0.87 | 0.01–1.73 | 0.00–1.97 | 2.230.00–4.56 |
| Shots on target | 4.52 | 2.67–6.38 | 2.17–6.88 | 2.78 | 1.07–4.48 | 0.60–4.95 | 7.302.77–11.83 |
| Total shots | 12.04 | 8.34–15.75 | 7.31–16.78 | 10.13 | 6.75–13.51 | 5.82–14.44 | 22.1713.13–31.22 |
| Shots in box | 8.49 | 5.98–11.01 | 5.11–11.87 | 5.83 | 3.53–8.13 | 2.73–8.93 | 14.327.84–20.80 |
| Blocked shots | 2.95 | 1.36–4.53 | 0.83–5.07 | 3.06 | 1.64–4.47 | 1.15–4.96 | 6.001.98–10.02 |
| Corners | 5.17 | 2.97–7.38 | 2.37–7.97 | 3.36 | 1.38–5.33 | 0.84–5.87 | 8.533.21–13.85 |
| Possession % | 56.46 | 50.14–62.78 | 48.54–64.37 | 44.37 | 38.06–50.69 | 36.46–52.29 | — |
| Passes | 481 | 416–546 | 398–564 | 378 | 314–443 | 296–460 | 859694–1025 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.33 | 71.11–79.54 | 69.81–80.84 | 69.00 | 64.49–73.51 | 63.16–74.84 | — |
| Fouls | 12.37 | 9.51–15.23 | 8.63–16.11 | 14.63 | 11.68–17.57 | 10.77–18.49 | 27.0019.39–34.61 |
| Offsides | 2.43 | 1.22–3.64 | 0.87–3.98 | 1.57 | 0.40–2.73 | 0.07–3.06 | 3.990.94–7.04 |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 | 0.84–2.95 | 0.57–3.22 | 2.73 | 1.61–3.85 | 1.32–4.14 | 4.631.89–7.37 |
| Red cards | 0.08 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.180.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 2.19 | 0.77–3.60 | 0.38–3.99 | 2.71 | 1.15–4.26 | 0.72–4.69 | 4.891.10–8.68 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
48%
28%
24%
Shots on target
68%
20%
Total shots
62%
30%
Shots in box
72%
20%
Blocked shots
40%
17%
43%
Corners
67%
21%
Fouls
30%
63%
Offsides
57%
19%
24%
Yellow cards
26%
18%
56%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
32%
18%
50%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+