Super League 1· Regular Season - 14· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 | 0.37–2.30 | 0.11–2.56 | 1.50 | 0.64–2.36 | 0.40–2.61 | 2.840.51–5.17 |
| Shots on target | 4.35 | 2.49–6.21 | 1.99–6.70 | 4.88 | 3.17–6.58 | 2.70–7.05 | 9.234.69–13.76 |
| Total shots | 12.21 | 8.51–15.91 | 7.48–16.94 | 13.52 | 10.14–16.90 | 9.21–17.83 | 25.7316.69–34.77 |
| Shots in box | 8.50 | 5.98–11.02 | 5.12–11.88 | 8.91 | 6.61–11.21 | 5.81–12.01 | 17.4110.93–23.89 |
| Blocked shots | 3.28 | 1.70–4.87 | 1.16–5.40 | 3.93 | 2.51–5.34 | 2.03–5.83 | 7.213.19–11.23 |
| Corners | 4.76 | 2.55–6.96 | 1.96–7.56 | 5.16 | 3.18–7.13 | 2.64–7.67 | 9.914.60–15.23 |
| Possession % | 44.59 | 38.27–50.91 | 36.68–52.50 | 54.58 | 48.26–60.90 | 46.66–62.49 | — |
| Passes | 414 | 349–479 | 331–497 | 461 | 397–526 | 379–544 | 875710–1041 |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.65 | 71.43–79.86 | 70.13–81.16 | 78.85 | 74.34–83.35 | 73.01–84.68 | — |
| Fouls | 12.94 | 10.09–15.80 | 9.20–16.69 | 14.63 | 11.68–17.57 | 10.76–18.49 | 27.5719.97–35.18 |
| Offsides | 1.92 | 0.71–3.13 | 0.37–3.47 | 2.11 | 0.95–3.28 | 0.62–3.61 | 4.030.98–7.08 |
| Yellow cards | 2.45 | 1.39–3.50 | 1.12–3.78 | 2.43 | 1.31–3.55 | 1.02–3.84 | 4.882.14–7.61 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.46 | 0.170.00–0.81 |
| GK saves | 2.90 | 1.48–4.31 | 1.09–4.70 | 2.63 | 1.08–4.19 | 0.65–4.62 | 5.531.74–9.32 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
34%
25%
41%
Shots on target
37%
13%
50%
Total shots
36%
56%
Shots in box
41%
49%
Blocked shots
33%
15%
52%
Corners
39%
49%
Fouls
34%
59%
Offsides
36%
21%
43%
Yellow cards
41%
19%
40%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+