Super League 1· Regular Season - 16· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.51 | 1.54–3.47 | 1.28–3.73 | 0.73 | 0.00–1.59 | 0.00–1.84 | 3.240.91–5.57 |
| Shots on target | 6.93 | 5.08–8.79 | 4.58–9.29 | 2.91 | 1.21–4.62 | 0.74–5.09 | 9.855.32–14.38 |
| Total shots | 17.84 | 14.14–21.54 | 13.10–22.57 | 8.76 | 5.38–12.14 | 4.45–13.07 | 26.6017.55–35.64 |
| Shots in box | 13.70 | 11.18–16.21 | 10.31–17.08 | 4.69 | 2.39–6.99 | 1.59–7.79 | 18.3911.91–24.87 |
| Blocked shots | 4.59 | 3.00–6.17 | 2.47–6.70 | 2.36 | 0.95–3.78 | 0.46–4.26 | 6.952.93–10.97 |
| Corners | 6.00 | 3.80–8.21 | 3.20–8.80 | 2.76 | 0.78–4.74 | 0.24–5.27 | 8.763.45–14.08 |
| Possession % | 60.03 | 53.71–66.35 | 52.12–67.94 | 40.05 | 33.73–46.37 | 32.14–47.97 | — |
| Passes | 514 | 449–580 | 431–597 | 372 | 307–436 | 290–454 | 886721–1051 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.29 | 77.07–85.50 | 75.77–86.80 | 70.14 | 65.64–74.65 | 64.31–75.98 | — |
| Fouls | 12.76 | 9.91–15.62 | 9.02–16.51 | 13.52 | 10.57–16.46 | 9.65–17.38 | 26.2818.67–33.88 |
| Offsides | 2.00 | 0.79–3.21 | 0.45–3.55 | 1.33 | 0.17–2.49 | 0.00–2.82 | 3.330.28–6.38 |
| Yellow cards | 1.40 | 0.34–2.46 | 0.07–2.73 | 2.43 | 1.31–3.55 | 1.02–3.84 | 3.831.09–6.57 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 1.96 | 0.55–3.38 | 0.16–3.77 | 3.61 | 2.05–5.16 | 1.62–5.59 | 5.571.78–9.36 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
76%
15%
Shots on target
87%
Total shots
95%
Shots in box
98%
Blocked shots
74%
15%
Corners
83%
Fouls
40%
52%
Offsides
53%
22%
25%
Yellow cards
21%
19%
60%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
18%
14%
69%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+