Super League 1· Regular Season - 18· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.86 | 0.90–2.82 | 0.64–3.08 | 0.81 | 0.00–1.67 | 0.00–1.92 | 2.670.34–5.00 |
| Shots on target | 5.99 | 4.14–7.85 | 3.64–8.35 | 2.81 | 1.10–4.51 | 0.63–4.98 | 8.804.27–13.33 |
| Total shots | 17.31 | 13.60–21.01 | 12.57–22.04 | 8.74 | 5.37–12.12 | 4.44–13.05 | 26.0517.01–35.09 |
| Shots in box | 10.46 | 7.95–12.98 | 7.08–13.84 | 5.35 | 3.04–7.65 | 2.25–8.44 | 15.819.33–22.29 |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 | 2.23–5.39 | 1.69–5.93 | 2.27 | 0.85–3.68 | 0.37–4.17 | 6.082.06–10.10 |
| Corners | 6.76 | 4.56–8.97 | 3.96–9.57 | 3.43 | 1.45–5.41 | 0.91–5.94 | 10.194.88–15.51 |
| Possession % | 57.87 | 51.55–64.19 | 49.95–65.78 | 43.03 | 36.71–49.35 | 35.11–50.95 | — |
| Passes | 488 | 422–553 | 405–571 | 376 | 312–441 | 294–458 | 864699–1029 |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.38 | 72.16–80.60 | 70.86–81.90 | 66.01 | 61.50–70.52 | 60.17–71.85 | — |
| Fouls | 13.00 | 10.14–15.86 | 9.26–16.74 | 12.11 | 9.16–15.05 | 8.25–15.97 | 25.1117.51–32.72 |
| Offsides | 1.90 | 0.69–3.11 | 0.35–3.46 | 2.18 | 1.02–3.34 | 0.69–3.68 | 4.081.03–7.13 |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 | 0.58–2.70 | 0.31–2.97 | 2.22 | 1.10–3.34 | 0.81–3.63 | 3.861.12–6.59 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.130.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 1.86 | 0.45–3.28 | 0.06–3.67 | 3.48 | 1.93–5.03 | 1.49–5.47 | 5.341.55–9.13 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
62%
22%
16%
Shots on target
82%
Total shots
95%
Shots in box
88%
Blocked shots
66%
14%
20%
Corners
82%
Fouls
53%
39%
Offsides
35%
20%
45%
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
17%
14%
68%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+