Super League 1· Regular Season - 19· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.87 | 0.91–2.83 | 0.65–3.09 | 1.07 | 0.21–1.93 | 0.00–2.17 | 2.940.61–5.27 |
| Shots on target | 5.57 | 3.71–7.42 | 3.21–7.92 | 3.28 | 1.57–4.99 | 1.11–5.46 | 8.854.32–13.38 |
| Total shots | 15.26 | 11.56–18.96 | 10.53–20.00 | 10.26 | 6.88–13.64 | 5.95–14.57 | 25.5216.47–34.56 |
| Shots in box | 9.85 | 7.34–12.37 | 6.47–13.24 | 5.93 | 3.63–8.23 | 2.83–9.03 | 15.799.31–22.26 |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 | 2.19–5.36 | 1.65–5.89 | 2.56 | 1.15–3.98 | 0.66–4.46 | 6.332.31–10.35 |
| Corners | 5.89 | 3.69–8.10 | 3.09–8.69 | 3.67 | 1.69–5.65 | 1.15–6.19 | 9.564.25–14.88 |
| Possession % | 52.58 | 46.26–58.90 | 44.67–60.50 | 47.50 | 41.18–53.81 | 39.58–55.41 | — |
| Passes | 428 | 363–494 | 345–511 | 369 | 304–433 | 287–451 | 797632–962 |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.57 | 68.36–76.79 | 67.06–78.09 | 68.23 | 63.72–72.73 | 62.39–74.07 | — |
| Fouls | 16.49 | 13.63–19.34 | 12.74–20.23 | 15.00 | 12.06–17.95 | 11.14–18.87 | 31.4923.88–39.09 |
| Offsides | 2.47 | 1.26–3.68 | 0.92–4.03 | 2.21 | 1.05–3.37 | 0.71–3.70 | 4.681.63–7.73 |
| Yellow cards | 2.48 | 1.42–3.53 | 1.15–3.81 | 2.52 | 1.40–3.64 | 1.11–3.93 | 4.992.25–7.73 |
| Red cards | 0.14 | 0.00–0.30 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.11 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.45 | 0.260.00–0.90 |
| GK saves | 2.15 | 0.74–3.57 | 0.35–3.96 | 3.39 | 1.83–4.94 | 1.40–5.37 | 5.541.75–9.33 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
56%
22%
21%
Shots on target
73%
17%
Total shots
81%
14%
Shots in box
81%
13%
Blocked shots
61%
15%
25%
Corners
71%
19%
Fouls
57%
36%
Offsides
45%
19%
36%
Yellow cards
40%
18%
41%
Red cards
79%
GK saves
23%
15%
62%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+