Super League 1· Regular Season - 20· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.88 | 0.92–2.84 | 0.66–3.10 | 0.81 | 0.00–1.67 | 0.00–1.92 | 2.700.37–5.03 |
| Shots on target | 6.31 | 4.46–8.17 | 3.96–8.67 | 3.16 | 1.45–4.86 | 0.98–5.33 | 9.474.94–14.00 |
| Total shots | 17.76 | 14.06–21.47 | 13.03–22.50 | 8.62 | 5.24–12.00 | 4.31–12.93 | 26.3917.34–35.43 |
| Shots in box | 10.84 | 8.33–13.36 | 7.46–14.22 | 6.10 | 3.79–8.40 | 3.00–9.19 | 16.9410.46–23.42 |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 | 2.84–6.01 | 2.31–6.54 | 2.23 | 0.81–3.64 | 0.33–4.13 | 6.662.64–10.67 |
| Corners | 6.88 | 4.67–9.08 | 4.08–9.68 | 3.57 | 1.59–5.55 | 1.06–6.09 | 10.455.13–15.76 |
| Possession % | 60.75 | 54.44–67.07 | 52.84–68.67 | 38.87 | 32.55–45.19 | 30.96–46.79 | — |
| Passes | 493 | 427–558 | 410–576 | 321 | 257–386 | 239–403 | 814649–979 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.90 | 73.68–82.11 | 72.38–83.41 | 66.61 | 62.10–71.11 | 60.77–72.44 | — |
| Fouls | 12.50 | 9.64–15.36 | 8.76–16.24 | 12.62 | 9.67–15.56 | 8.75–16.48 | 25.1217.51–32.72 |
| Offsides | 1.69 | 0.48–2.90 | 0.13–3.24 | 2.62 | 1.46–3.79 | 1.13–4.12 | 4.311.26–7.36 |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 | 0.49–2.61 | 0.22–2.88 | 2.25 | 1.13–3.37 | 0.84–3.66 | 3.801.06–6.53 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 1.94 | 0.52–3.35 | 0.13–3.74 | 3.72 | 2.16–5.27 | 1.73–5.70 | 5.651.87–9.44 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
63%
22%
16%
Shots on target
81%
Total shots
96%
Shots in box
85%
Blocked shots
75%
14%
Corners
81%
Fouls
45%
47%
Offsides
24%
18%
58%
Yellow cards
26%
20%
53%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
16%
13%
70%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+