Super League 1· Regular Season - 21· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.72 | 0.76–2.68 | 0.50–2.94 | 1.12 | 0.26–1.98 | 0.02–2.23 | 2.840.51–5.17 |
| Shots on target | 4.83 | 2.97–6.68 | 2.47–7.18 | 3.65 | 1.94–5.36 | 1.48–5.83 | 8.483.95–13.01 |
| Total shots | 14.40 | 10.70–18.11 | 9.67–19.14 | 11.50 | 8.12–14.88 | 7.19–15.81 | 25.9016.86–34.94 |
| Shots in box | 9.70 | 7.18–12.22 | 6.32–13.08 | 7.26 | 4.95–9.56 | 4.16–10.35 | 16.9610.48–23.44 |
| Blocked shots | 3.60 | 2.02–5.19 | 1.49–5.72 | 3.15 | 1.73–4.56 | 1.24–5.05 | 6.752.73–10.77 |
| Corners | 5.48 | 3.28–7.69 | 2.68–8.28 | 4.33 | 2.36–6.31 | 1.82–6.85 | 9.824.50–15.13 |
| Possession % | 50.98 | 44.67–57.30 | 43.07–58.90 | 48.78 | 42.47–55.10 | 40.87–56.70 | — |
| Passes | 419 | 354–485 | 336–502 | 393 | 328–457 | 311–475 | 812647–977 |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.44 | 63.22–71.65 | 61.92–72.95 | 68.11 | 63.60–72.61 | 62.27–73.94 | — |
| Fouls | 13.71 | 10.85–16.57 | 9.97–17.45 | 13.91 | 10.96–16.86 | 10.05–17.77 | 27.6220.02–35.23 |
| Offsides | 1.95 | 0.74–3.16 | 0.40–3.51 | 1.44 | 0.27–2.60 | 0.00–2.93 | 3.390.34–6.44 |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 | 0.71–2.82 | 0.44–3.10 | 2.04 | 0.92–3.16 | 0.63–3.45 | 3.811.07–6.55 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.43 | 0.190.00–0.83 |
| GK saves | 2.28 | 0.86–3.69 | 0.47–4.08 | 2.85 | 1.29–4.40 | 0.86–4.83 | 5.121.34–8.91 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
51%
24%
25%
Shots on target
59%
28%
Total shots
68%
25%
Shots in box
68%
24%
Blocked shots
49%
15%
35%
Corners
58%
30%
Fouls
45%
48%
Offsides
50%
22%
28%
Yellow cards
34%
21%
45%
Red cards
84%
GK saves
31%
18%
51%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+