Super League 1· Regular Season - 25· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 | 0.26–2.19 | 0.00–2.45 | 1.38 | 0.52–2.24 | 0.27–2.48 | 2.600.28–4.93 |
| Shots on target | 4.46 | 2.60–6.32 | 2.10–6.81 | 3.93 | 2.22–5.63 | 1.75–6.10 | 8.393.86–12.92 |
| Total shots | 13.10 | 9.39–16.80 | 8.36–17.83 | 12.41 | 9.03–15.79 | 8.10–16.72 | 25.5116.47–34.55 |
| Shots in box | 8.31 | 5.79–10.83 | 4.93–11.69 | 8.05 | 5.75–10.35 | 4.95–11.15 | 16.369.88–22.84 |
| Blocked shots | 3.10 | 1.52–4.69 | 0.98–5.22 | 3.39 | 1.97–4.80 | 1.49–5.29 | 6.492.47–10.51 |
| Corners | 4.50 | 2.30–6.71 | 1.70–7.30 | 4.75 | 2.77–6.73 | 2.23–7.27 | 9.253.93–14.57 |
| Possession % | 46.49 | 40.17–52.81 | 38.57–54.40 | 54.56 | 48.24–60.87 | 46.64–62.47 | — |
| Passes | 367 | 302–432 | 284–450 | 435 | 370–499 | 353–517 | 802637–967 |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.97 | 66.75–75.18 | 65.45–76.48 | 73.02 | 68.51–77.53 | 67.18–78.86 | — |
| Fouls | 14.59 | 11.73–17.44 | 10.84–18.33 | 14.93 | 11.99–17.88 | 11.07–18.80 | 29.5221.92–37.13 |
| Offsides | 2.11 | 0.90–3.32 | 0.56–3.66 | 1.42 | 0.26–2.58 | 0.00–2.92 | 3.530.48–6.58 |
| Yellow cards | 2.21 | 1.15–3.27 | 0.88–3.54 | 2.20 | 1.08–3.32 | 0.79–3.61 | 4.411.67–7.15 |
| Red cards | 0.10 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 | 0.00–0.31 | 0.00–0.46 | 0.220.00–0.86 |
| GK saves | 2.54 | 1.13–3.96 | 0.74–4.34 | 2.60 | 1.05–4.16 | 0.62–4.59 | 5.141.36–8.93 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
26%
40%
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
Total shots
51%
41%
Shots in box
48%
42%
Blocked shots
38%
16%
46%
Corners
40%
13%
47%
Fouls
44%
49%
Offsides
53%
21%
26%
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
Red cards
81%
GK saves
40%
18%
42%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+