UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.55 | 0.59–2.51 | 0.33–2.77 | 1.26 | 0.40–2.12 | 0.16–2.37 | 2.810.49–5.14 |
| Shots on target | 5.36 | 3.50–7.21 | 3.00–7.71 | 4.03 | 2.32–5.73 | 1.85–6.20 | 9.384.85–13.91 |
| Total shots | 14.54 | 10.84–18.24 | 9.81–19.27 | 11.66 | 8.29–15.04 | 7.36–15.97 | 26.2017.16–35.25 |
| Shots in box | 9.08 | 6.56–11.59 | 5.70–12.46 | 7.04 | 4.74–9.34 | 3.94–10.14 | 16.129.64–22.59 |
| Blocked shots | 4.23 | 2.65–5.81 | 2.11–6.35 | 3.07 | 1.65–4.48 | 1.17–4.97 | 7.303.28–11.32 |
| Corners | 5.14 | 2.94–7.35 | 2.34–7.94 | 4.13 | 2.15–6.11 | 1.61–6.64 | 9.273.95–14.59 |
| Possession % | 51.39 | 45.07–57.71 | 43.48–59.31 | 49.09 | 42.77–55.41 | 41.17–57.00 | — |
| Passes | 493 | 428–559 | 410–576 | 454 | 390–519 | 372–536 | 948782–1113 |
| Pass accuracy % | 78.08 | 73.87–82.30 | 72.57–83.60 | 75.70 | 71.19–80.21 | 69.86–81.54 | — |
| Fouls | 10.67 | 7.81–13.53 | 6.93–14.41 | 12.53 | 9.59–15.48 | 8.67–16.39 | 23.2015.59–30.81 |
| Offsides | 2.09 | 0.88–3.29 | 0.53–3.64 | 1.10 | 0.00–2.27 | 0.00–2.60 | 3.190.14–6.24 |
| Yellow cards | 1.56 | 0.51–2.62 | 0.23–2.89 | 2.10 | 0.98–3.22 | 0.69–3.51 | 3.660.93–6.40 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.63 | 1.22–4.04 | 0.83–4.43 | 2.98 | 1.43–4.53 | 0.99–4.97 | 5.611.82–9.40 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
44%
25%
31%
Shots on target
61%
27%
Total shots
68%
25%
Shots in box
65%
26%
Blocked shots
60%
14%
27%
Corners
57%
31%
Fouls
31%
61%
Offsides
60%
21%
19%
Yellow cards
29%
21%
50%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+