UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 4· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 | 0.12–2.04 | 0.00–2.30 | 1.97 | 1.11–2.83 | 0.86–3.07 | 3.050.72–5.38 |
| Shots on target | 3.80 | 1.95–5.66 | 1.45–6.16 | 6.06 | 4.35–7.77 | 3.88–8.23 | 9.865.33–14.39 |
| Total shots | 10.95 | 7.25–14.65 | 6.21–15.68 | 14.88 | 11.51–18.26 | 10.57–19.19 | 25.8316.79–34.88 |
| Shots in box | 6.96 | 4.45–9.48 | 3.58–10.34 | 9.86 | 7.55–12.16 | 6.76–12.95 | 16.8210.34–23.30 |
| Blocked shots | 2.97 | 1.39–4.56 | 0.85–5.09 | 4.25 | 2.83–5.66 | 2.35–6.15 | 7.223.20–11.24 |
| Corners | 4.02 | 1.81–6.22 | 1.22–6.82 | 5.87 | 3.89–7.85 | 3.35–8.38 | 9.894.57–15.20 |
| Possession % | 36.53 | 30.21–42.85 | 28.62–44.45 | 64.11 | 57.79–70.43 | 56.19–72.02 | — |
| Passes | 383 | 317–448 | 300–466 | 650 | 585–715 | 568–732 | 1033868–1198 |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.95 | 70.74–79.17 | 69.44–80.47 | 84.38 | 79.88–88.89 | 78.55–90.22 | — |
| Fouls | 10.25 | 7.39–13.11 | 6.51–13.99 | 10.49 | 7.54–13.43 | 6.62–14.35 | 20.7413.13–28.34 |
| Offsides | 2.19 | 0.98–3.40 | 0.64–3.75 | 1.60 | 0.44–2.77 | 0.11–3.10 | 3.800.75–6.85 |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 | 0.91–3.02 | 0.63–3.29 | 1.74 | 0.62–2.86 | 0.33–3.15 | 3.700.96–6.44 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.05 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.38 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 4.03 | 2.61–5.44 | 2.22–5.83 | 2.49 | 0.93–4.04 | 0.50–4.47 | 6.522.73–10.31 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
20%
22%
58%
Shots on target
19%
71%
Total shots
19%
75%
Shots in box
20%
72%
Blocked shots
25%
14%
61%
Corners
23%
67%
Fouls
44%
48%
Offsides
51%
20%
28%
Yellow cards
44%
21%
35%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
66%
13%
21%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+