UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 8· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.83 | 1.87–3.80 | 1.61–4.06 | 1.13 | 0.27–1.99 | 0.02–2.23 | 3.961.63–6.29 |
| Shots on target | 7.94 | 6.09–9.80 | 5.59–10.30 | 3.81 | 2.11–5.52 | 1.64–5.99 | 11.757.22–16.28 |
| Total shots | 19.00 | 15.30–22.70 | 14.27–23.73 | 9.18 | 5.80–12.56 | 4.87–13.49 | 28.1819.14–37.23 |
| Shots in box | 13.39 | 10.87–15.90 | 10.01–16.77 | 6.03 | 3.73–8.33 | 2.93–9.13 | 19.4212.94–25.90 |
| Blocked shots | 4.06 | 2.47–5.64 | 1.94–6.18 | 2.77 | 1.35–4.18 | 0.87–4.67 | 6.832.81–10.85 |
| Corners | 6.87 | 4.67–9.08 | 4.07–9.67 | 3.22 | 1.24–5.20 | 0.70–5.73 | 10.094.77–15.41 |
| Possession % | 63.37 | 57.05–69.69 | 55.46–71.28 | 37.87 | 31.55–44.19 | 29.95–45.78 | — |
| Passes | 678 | 613–743 | 595–761 | 374 | 310–439 | 292–456 | 1052887–1217 |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.87 | 80.66–89.09 | 79.36–90.39 | 77.08 | 72.58–81.59 | 71.25–82.92 | — |
| Fouls | 7.99 | 5.13–10.85 | 4.25–11.73 | 10.46 | 7.51–13.40 | 6.59–14.32 | 18.4510.84–26.05 |
| Offsides | 3.13 | 1.92–4.34 | 1.58–4.69 | 3.31 | 2.14–4.47 | 1.81–4.80 | 6.443.39–9.49 |
| Yellow cards | 1.24 | 0.18–2.29 | 0.00–2.57 | 1.79 | 0.67–2.91 | 0.38–3.20 | 3.020.29–5.76 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.09 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.02 | 1.61–4.44 | 1.22–4.82 | 4.21 | 2.65–5.76 | 2.22–6.19 | 7.233.44–11.02 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
73%
15%
Shots on target
86%
Total shots
96%
Shots in box
94%
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
Corners
84%
Fouls
24%
68%
Offsides
39%
16%
45%
Yellow cards
26%
23%
50%
Red cards
88%
GK saves
26%
14%
60%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+