UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 6· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 | 0.50–2.42 | 0.24–2.68 | 1.41 | 0.55–2.27 | 0.30–2.52 | 2.870.54–5.20 |
| Shots on target | 5.48 | 3.62–7.33 | 3.12–7.83 | 4.70 | 2.99–6.41 | 2.52–6.88 | 10.185.64–14.71 |
| Total shots | 14.96 | 11.26–18.67 | 10.23–19.70 | 11.95 | 8.57–15.32 | 7.64–16.25 | 26.9117.86–35.95 |
| Shots in box | 10.28 | 7.76–12.80 | 6.90–13.66 | 8.28 | 5.97–10.58 | 5.18–11.37 | 18.5612.08–25.03 |
| Blocked shots | 3.84 | 2.26–5.42 | 1.72–5.96 | 3.51 | 2.10–4.92 | 1.61–5.41 | 7.353.33–11.37 |
| Corners | 5.63 | 3.42–7.83 | 2.83–8.43 | 4.68 | 2.71–6.66 | 2.17–7.20 | 10.314.99–15.63 |
| Possession % | 44.24 | 37.92–50.55 | 36.32–52.15 | 56.17 | 49.85–62.49 | 48.25–64.09 | — |
| Passes | 425 | 359–490 | 342–508 | 555 | 490–620 | 473–637 | 980815–1145 |
| Pass accuracy % | 80.07 | 75.85–84.28 | 74.55–85.58 | 86.24 | 81.73–90.74 | 80.40–92.07 | — |
| Fouls | 10.96 | 8.11–13.82 | 7.22–14.71 | 9.71 | 6.76–12.65 | 5.85–13.57 | 20.6713.07–28.28 |
| Offsides | 2.79 | 1.58–4.00 | 1.24–4.34 | 1.56 | 0.40–2.72 | 0.07–3.06 | 4.351.30–7.40 |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 | 0.71–2.83 | 0.44–3.10 | 1.71 | 0.59–2.83 | 0.30–3.12 | 3.480.74–6.22 |
| Red cards | 0.03 | 0.00–0.18 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.07 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.41 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 3.19 | 1.77–4.60 | 1.39–4.99 | 3.02 | 1.46–4.57 | 1.03–5.00 | 6.212.42–10.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
39%
25%
36%
Shots on target
53%
34%
Total shots
69%
25%
Shots in box
64%
28%
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
Corners
55%
33%
Fouls
57%
35%
Offsides
63%
17%
20%
Yellow cards
40%
22%
38%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
45%
16%
39%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+