UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 1· · referee: Szymon Marciniak, Poland
Prediction vs actual result
pre-match prediction · frozen at kickoff| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 | 0.33–2.25 | 0.07–2.51 | 1.49 | 0.63–2.35 | 0.38–2.59 | 2.780.45–5.11 |
| Shots on target | 4.04 | 2.18–5.90 | 1.69–6.40 | 4.70 | 2.99–6.41 | 2.52–6.88 | 8.744.21–13.27 |
| Total shots | 12.02 | 8.31–15.72 | 7.28–16.75 | 13.17 | 9.79–16.55 | 8.86–17.48 | 25.1916.15–34.23 |
| Shots in box | 7.75 | 5.23–10.26 | 4.37–11.13 | 8.61 | 6.31–10.91 | 5.51–11.71 | 16.369.88–22.84 |
| Blocked shots | 2.92 | 1.34–4.51 | 0.80–5.04 | 3.68 | 2.26–5.09 | 1.77–5.58 | 6.602.58–10.62 |
| Corners | 4.17 | 1.97–6.38 | 1.37–6.97 | 5.23 | 3.25–7.21 | 2.72–7.75 | 9.404.09–14.72 |
| Possession % | 41.07 | 34.75–47.38 | 33.15–48.98 | 58.80 | 52.48–65.12 | 50.88–66.71 | — |
| Passes | 369 | 304–434 | 286–452 | 581 | 516–645 | 499–663 | 950785–1115 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.23 | 77.01–85.44 | 75.71–86.74 | 87.72 | 83.22–92.23 | 81.88–93.56 | — |
| Fouls | 12.15 | 9.29–15.01 | 8.41–15.89 | 10.90 | 7.96–13.85 | 7.04–14.76 | 23.0515.44–30.66 |
| Offsides | 2.41 | 1.20–3.62 | 0.85–3.96 | 1.26 | 0.10–2.42 | 0.00–2.76 | 3.670.62–6.72 |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 | 0.94–3.05 | 0.66–3.32 | 2.06 | 0.94–3.18 | 0.65–3.47 | 4.051.32–6.79 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.28 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.140.00–0.78 |
| GK saves | 3.31 | 1.90–4.73 | 1.51–5.11 | 2.74 | 1.19–4.29 | 0.75–4.73 | 6.052.26–9.84 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
33%
25%
42%
Shots on target
35%
13%
52%
Total shots
37%
55%
Shots in box
37%
54%
Blocked shots
31%
15%
54%
Corners
30%
57%
Fouls
56%
36%
Offsides
63%
19%
19%
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
Red cards
87%
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+