UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 5· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.43 | 1.47–3.40 | 1.21–3.66 | 1.35 | 0.49–2.21 | 0.25–2.46 | 3.791.46–6.11 |
| Shots on target | 6.73 | 4.87–8.58 | 4.37–9.08 | 4.05 | 2.34–5.76 | 1.87–6.23 | 10.786.25–15.31 |
| Total shots | 17.70 | 13.99–21.40 | 12.96–22.43 | 10.63 | 7.25–14.01 | 6.32–14.94 | 28.3319.28–37.37 |
| Shots in box | 12.74 | 10.22–15.25 | 9.36–16.12 | 7.41 | 5.11–9.71 | 4.31–10.51 | 20.1513.67–26.63 |
| Blocked shots | 4.91 | 3.33–6.50 | 2.80–7.03 | 2.93 | 1.52–4.35 | 1.03–4.83 | 7.853.83–11.86 |
| Corners | 6.65 | 4.44–8.85 | 3.85–9.45 | 3.92 | 1.94–5.89 | 1.40–6.43 | 10.575.25–15.88 |
| Possession % | 61.23 | 54.92–67.55 | 53.32–69.15 | 39.46 | 33.14–45.78 | 31.54–47.38 | — |
| Passes | 616 | 550–681 | 533–699 | 413 | 348–477 | 330–495 | 1028863–1193 |
| Pass accuracy % | 88.01 | 83.79–92.23 | 82.49–93.53 | 81.48 | 76.98–85.99 | 75.65–87.32 | — |
| Fouls | 9.00 | 6.15–11.86 | 5.26–12.74 | 11.04 | 8.09–13.98 | 7.18–14.90 | 20.0412.44–27.65 |
| Offsides | 1.75 | 0.54–2.96 | 0.20–3.31 | 2.37 | 1.21–3.53 | 0.88–3.87 | 4.121.08–7.17 |
| Yellow cards | 1.36 | 0.30–2.42 | 0.03–2.69 | 1.84 | 0.72–2.96 | 0.43–3.25 | 3.200.47–5.94 |
| Red cards | 0.04 | 0.00–0.19 | 0.00–0.34 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.100.00–0.74 |
| GK saves | 2.66 | 1.25–4.07 | 0.86–4.46 | 3.97 | 2.42–5.53 | 1.99–5.96 | 6.632.84–10.42 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
61%
19%
20%
Shots on target
75%
16%
Total shots
89%
Shots in box
86%
Blocked shots
70%
18%
Corners
75%
16%
Fouls
28%
63%
Offsides
29%
20%
52%
Yellow cards
28%
23%
49%
Red cards
91%
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+