UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 2· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 | 0.53–2.45 | 0.27–2.71 | 1.53 | 0.67–2.39 | 0.42–2.63 | 3.020.69–5.35 |
| Shots on target | 4.77 | 2.91–6.63 | 2.42–7.13 | 4.80 | 3.09–6.51 | 2.63–6.98 | 9.575.04–14.10 |
| Total shots | 14.11 | 10.41–17.82 | 9.38–18.85 | 12.87 | 9.49–16.25 | 8.56–17.18 | 26.9917.94–36.03 |
| Shots in box | 8.86 | 6.34–11.37 | 5.48–12.24 | 8.70 | 6.40–11.00 | 5.60–11.80 | 17.5611.08–24.03 |
| Blocked shots | 4.41 | 2.82–5.99 | 2.29–6.53 | 3.65 | 2.23–5.06 | 1.74–5.55 | 8.054.03–12.07 |
| Corners | 4.95 | 2.74–7.15 | 2.15–7.75 | 4.84 | 2.86–6.82 | 2.32–7.35 | 9.794.47–15.10 |
| Possession % | 45.45 | 39.13–51.76 | 37.53–53.36 | 53.83 | 47.51–60.15 | 45.91–61.75 | — |
| Passes | 402 | 337–468 | 319–485 | 483 | 418–547 | 400–565 | 885720–1050 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.79 | 69.58–78.01 | 68.28–79.31 | 75.50 | 71.00–80.01 | 69.67–81.34 | — |
| Fouls | 9.76 | 6.90–12.62 | 6.02–13.50 | 10.72 | 7.78–13.67 | 6.86–14.59 | 20.4812.88–28.09 |
| Offsides | 2.01 | 0.80–3.22 | 0.46–3.57 | 1.50 | 0.34–2.67 | 0.01–3.00 | 3.520.47–6.57 |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 | 0.74–2.85 | 0.47–3.12 | 2.19 | 1.07–3.31 | 0.78–3.60 | 3.981.25–6.72 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 3.07 | 1.65–4.48 | 1.27–4.87 | 3.02 | 1.46–4.57 | 1.03–5.00 | 6.092.30–9.88 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
37%
24%
39%
Shots on target
43%
13%
44%
Total shots
56%
37%
Shots in box
47%
44%
Blocked shots
54%
14%
33%
Corners
45%
42%
Fouls
37%
54%
Offsides
50%
22%
29%
Yellow cards
32%
20%
47%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
43%
17%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+