UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 2· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 | 0.06–1.99 | 0.00–2.25 | 1.81 | 0.95–2.67 | 0.70–2.92 | 2.840.51–5.16 |
| Shots on target | 4.10 | 2.24–5.95 | 1.74–6.45 | 5.68 | 3.98–7.39 | 3.51–7.86 | 9.785.25–14.31 |
| Total shots | 11.31 | 7.61–15.02 | 6.58–16.05 | 13.69 | 10.31–17.06 | 9.38–17.99 | 25.0015.96–34.04 |
| Shots in box | 6.62 | 4.10–9.14 | 3.24–10.00 | 8.79 | 6.48–11.09 | 5.69–11.88 | 15.408.93–21.88 |
| Blocked shots | 3.13 | 1.54–4.71 | 1.01–5.25 | 3.69 | 2.27–5.10 | 1.79–5.59 | 6.822.80–10.84 |
| Corners | 4.47 | 2.27–6.68 | 1.67–7.27 | 5.05 | 3.07–7.03 | 2.53–7.56 | 9.524.20–14.84 |
| Possession % | 44.63 | 38.32–50.95 | 36.72–52.55 | 54.71 | 48.39–61.03 | 46.79–62.63 | — |
| Passes | 412 | 347–477 | 329–495 | 491 | 427–556 | 409–574 | 903738–1068 |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.36 | 69.15–77.58 | 67.84–78.88 | 79.69 | 75.18–84.20 | 73.85–85.53 | — |
| Fouls | 13.01 | 10.15–15.86 | 9.26–16.75 | 10.91 | 7.97–13.86 | 7.05–14.78 | 23.9216.31–31.52 |
| Offsides | 1.59 | 0.38–2.80 | 0.03–3.14 | 2.57 | 1.40–3.73 | 1.07–4.06 | 4.151.10–7.20 |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 | 0.99–3.10 | 0.72–3.37 | 2.25 | 1.13–3.38 | 0.84–3.67 | 4.301.56–7.04 |
| Red cards | 0.09 | 0.00–0.24 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 | 0.00–0.27 | 0.00–0.42 | 0.170.00–0.82 |
| GK saves | 4.24 | 2.83–5.65 | 2.44–6.04 | 2.29 | 0.73–3.84 | 0.30–4.27 | 6.532.74–10.31 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
21%
23%
56%
Shots on target
25%
64%
Total shots
28%
65%
Shots in box
25%
66%
Blocked shots
34%
15%
51%
Corners
36%
51%
Fouls
63%
30%
Offsides
23%
18%
59%
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
Red cards
85%
GK saves
72%
16%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+