UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 4· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.97 | 1.01–2.93 | 0.75–3.19 | 1.26 | 0.40–2.12 | 0.15–2.36 | 3.230.90–5.56 |
| Shots on target | 7.28 | 5.42–9.13 | 4.92–9.63 | 3.53 | 1.83–5.24 | 1.36–5.71 | 10.816.28–15.34 |
| Total shots | 19.09 | 15.38–22.79 | 14.35–23.82 | 10.12 | 6.74–13.50 | 5.81–14.43 | 29.2120.16–38.25 |
| Shots in box | 12.87 | 10.36–15.39 | 9.49–16.25 | 7.03 | 4.73–9.33 | 3.93–10.12 | 19.9013.42–26.38 |
| Blocked shots | 5.33 | 3.75–6.92 | 3.21–7.45 | 2.62 | 1.20–4.03 | 0.72–4.52 | 7.953.93–11.97 |
| Corners | 6.47 | 4.26–8.67 | 3.66–9.27 | 4.08 | 2.11–6.06 | 1.57–6.60 | 10.555.23–15.87 |
| Possession % | 54.93 | 48.61–61.25 | 47.02–62.85 | 44.90 | 38.59–51.22 | 36.99–52.82 | — |
| Passes | 551 | 486–617 | 468–634 | 452 | 388–517 | 370–534 | 1004838–1169 |
| Pass accuracy % | 81.68 | 77.47–85.90 | 76.17–87.20 | 76.99 | 72.48–81.49 | 71.15–82.82 | — |
| Fouls | 8.20 | 5.35–11.06 | 4.46–11.95 | 10.91 | 7.97–13.86 | 7.05–14.78 | 19.1211.51–26.72 |
| Offsides | 1.86 | 0.65–3.07 | 0.31–3.42 | 1.73 | 0.57–2.89 | 0.24–3.23 | 3.590.54–6.64 |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 | 0.59–2.70 | 0.32–2.97 | 2.01 | 0.89–3.13 | 0.60–3.42 | 3.660.92–6.40 |
| Red cards | 0.06 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 | 0.00–0.29 | 0.00–0.44 | 0.160.00–0.80 |
| GK saves | 2.29 | 0.88–3.71 | 0.49–4.10 | 3.94 | 2.39–5.50 | 1.96–5.93 | 6.242.45–10.03 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
54%
22%
24%
Shots on target
84%
Total shots
94%
Shots in box
89%
Blocked shots
79%
Corners
72%
19%
Fouls
23%
69%
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
Red cards
86%
GK saves
19%
13%
68%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+