UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 7· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 | 0.16–2.08 | 0.00–2.34 | 1.81 | 0.95–2.67 | 0.70–2.91 | 2.920.60–5.25 |
| Shots on target | 4.65 | 2.80–6.51 | 2.30–7.01 | 4.86 | 3.15–6.57 | 2.68–7.04 | 9.514.98–14.04 |
| Total shots | 14.16 | 10.45–17.86 | 9.42–18.89 | 13.71 | 10.33–17.09 | 9.40–18.02 | 27.8718.82–36.91 |
| Shots in box | 9.00 | 6.48–11.52 | 5.62–12.38 | 10.05 | 7.75–12.36 | 6.96–13.15 | 19.0512.57–25.53 |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 | 2.41–5.58 | 1.88–6.11 | 4.20 | 2.78–5.61 | 2.30–6.10 | 8.194.17–12.21 |
| Corners | 4.98 | 2.77–7.18 | 2.18–7.78 | 5.38 | 3.41–7.36 | 2.87–7.90 | 10.365.05–15.68 |
| Possession % | 43.18 | 36.87–49.50 | 35.27–51.10 | 56.83 | 50.51–63.15 | 48.91–64.75 | — |
| Passes | 391 | 326–457 | 308–474 | 519 | 454–583 | 437–601 | 910745–1075 |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.41 | 64.20–72.63 | 62.89–73.93 | 72.48 | 67.97–76.99 | 66.64–78.32 | — |
| Fouls | 11.03 | 8.17–13.88 | 7.28–14.77 | 10.63 | 7.68–13.58 | 6.77–14.49 | 21.6614.05–29.26 |
| Offsides | 1.62 | 0.41–2.83 | 0.07–3.18 | 1.61 | 0.45–2.77 | 0.12–3.11 | 3.230.19–6.28 |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 | 0.57–2.68 | 0.30–2.96 | 1.59 | 0.47–2.71 | 0.18–3.00 | 3.220.48–5.96 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.25 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 2.88 | 1.46–4.29 | 1.08–4.68 | 2.84 | 1.29–4.39 | 0.85–4.83 | 5.721.93–9.51 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
23%
23%
53%
Shots on target
41%
13%
46%
Total shots
50%
43%
Shots in box
36%
55%
Blocked shots
40%
14%
46%
Corners
39%
49%
Fouls
49%
42%
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
Yellow cards
39%
23%
38%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+