UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 8· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.97 | 0.00–1.93 | 0.00–2.19 | 2.49 | 1.63–3.35 | 1.39–3.60 | 3.461.13–5.79 |
| Shots on target | 3.30 | 1.44–5.15 | 0.94–5.65 | 7.53 | 5.82–9.24 | 5.36–9.71 | 10.836.30–15.36 |
| Total shots | 10.26 | 6.56–13.96 | 5.53–14.99 | 19.66 | 16.28–23.04 | 15.35–23.97 | 29.9220.88–38.96 |
| Shots in box | 6.00 | 3.48–8.51 | 2.62–9.38 | 13.34 | 11.04–15.64 | 10.24–16.44 | 19.3412.86–25.82 |
| Blocked shots | 2.45 | 0.87–4.03 | 0.33–4.57 | 4.50 | 3.09–5.92 | 2.60–6.40 | 6.952.93–10.97 |
| Corners | 3.34 | 1.13–5.54 | 0.54–6.14 | 6.96 | 4.98–8.94 | 4.44–9.47 | 10.294.98–15.61 |
| Possession % | 36.31 | 29.99–42.63 | 28.40–44.22 | 65.35 | 59.03–71.66 | 57.43–73.26 | — |
| Passes | 294 | 229–360 | 211–377 | 613 | 548–678 | 531–695 | 907742–1072 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.32 | 73.11–81.54 | 71.81–82.84 | 89.10 | 84.60–93.61 | 83.27–94.94 | — |
| Fouls | 9.51 | 6.65–12.37 | 5.77–13.25 | 9.50 | 6.55–12.44 | 5.63–13.36 | 19.0111.40–26.61 |
| Offsides | 2.40 | 1.20–3.61 | 0.85–3.96 | 2.40 | 1.23–3.56 | 0.90–3.89 | 4.801.75–7.85 |
| Yellow cards | 1.99 | 0.94–3.05 | 0.66–3.32 | 1.24 | 0.12–2.37 | 0.00–2.66 | 3.240.50–5.98 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.20 | 0.00–0.35 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.110.00–0.75 |
| GK saves | 5.07 | 3.65–6.48 | 3.26–6.87 | 2.41 | 0.85–3.96 | 0.42–4.39 | 7.473.69–11.26 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
17%
71%
Shots on target
88%
Total shots
95%
Shots in box
94%
Blocked shots
16%
72%
Corners
84%
Fouls
46%
45%
Offsides
41%
19%
40%
Yellow cards
55%
22%
24%
Red cards
90%
GK saves
79%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+