UEFA Champions League· League Stage - 4· · referee: not announced
Predicted match statistics
| Stat | Home | safe | safer | Away | safe | safer | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.29 | 0.33–2.25 | 0.07–2.51 | 2.08 | 1.22–2.94 | 0.97–3.18 | 3.361.04–5.69 |
| Shots on target | 4.39 | 2.53–6.24 | 2.03–6.74 | 6.81 | 5.10–8.52 | 4.63–8.99 | 11.196.66–15.73 |
| Total shots | 11.34 | 7.64–15.04 | 6.60–16.07 | 16.68 | 13.30–20.06 | 12.37–20.99 | 28.0218.97–37.06 |
| Shots in box | 6.80 | 4.28–9.31 | 3.42–10.18 | 10.44 | 8.14–12.74 | 7.34–13.54 | 17.2410.76–23.71 |
| Blocked shots | 2.94 | 1.35–4.52 | 0.82–5.05 | 4.30 | 2.88–5.71 | 2.40–6.20 | 7.233.22–11.25 |
| Corners | 4.12 | 1.91–6.32 | 1.32–6.92 | 6.06 | 4.08–8.03 | 3.54–8.57 | 10.174.86–15.49 |
| Possession % | 36.48 | 30.16–42.80 | 28.56–44.39 | 62.63 | 56.31–68.95 | 54.72–70.55 | — |
| Passes | 419 | 353–484 | 336–502 | 653 | 589–718 | 571–735 | 1072907–1237 |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.25 | 73.04–81.47 | 71.73–82.77 | 83.21 | 78.71–87.72 | 77.38–89.05 | — |
| Fouls | 9.24 | 6.38–12.10 | 5.50–12.98 | 9.83 | 6.89–12.78 | 5.97–13.70 | 19.0711.47–26.68 |
| Offsides | 2.44 | 1.23–3.65 | 0.88–3.99 | 2.35 | 1.18–3.51 | 0.85–3.84 | 4.781.73–7.83 |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 | 0.91–3.02 | 0.64–3.29 | 1.36 | 0.24–2.48 | 0.00–2.77 | 3.330.59–6.07 |
| Red cards | 0.05 | 0.00–0.21 | 0.00–0.36 | 0.06 | 0.00–0.26 | 0.00–0.40 | 0.120.00–0.76 |
| GK saves | 4.68 | 3.27–6.10 | 2.88–6.49 | 2.53 | 0.98–4.09 | 0.55–4.52 | 7.223.43–11.00 |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic
Who wins each stat?
home draw away
Goals
23%
21%
56%
Shots on target
19%
72%
Total shots
13%
82%
Shots in box
16%
78%
Blocked shots
24%
13%
62%
Corners
22%
67%
Fouls
40%
51%
Offsides
42%
19%
39%
Yellow cards
51%
22%
27%
Red cards
89%
GK saves
73%
16%
Model-implied probabilities from the predicted rates (Poisson approximation, teams treated as independent).
Model details — best model per statistic (lgbm, lstm_mlp_multi, lstm_mlp_single, xgb) · snapshot 2b4a317d · computed
| Target | Model / policy | Variant | PCA | MAE | RMSE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.415 | 1.901 |
| AWAY_CORNERS | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.978 | 2.516 |
| AWAY_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.945 | 3.863 |
| AWAY_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.554 | 1.986 |
| AWAY_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.860 | 1.106 |
| AWAY_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_mean_rest | none | 1.163 | 1.495 |
| AWAY_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 64.581 | 82.146 |
| AWAY_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.507 | 5.837 |
| AWAY_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.319 | 7.916 |
| AWAY_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 0.193 | 0.337 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_IN_BOX | xgb | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.301 | 3.098 |
| AWAY_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.707 | 2.176 |
| AWAY_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.378 | 4.309 |
| AWAY_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.120 | 1.410 |
| HOME_BLOCKED_SHOTS | xgb | cards_cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.584 | 2.119 |
| HOME_CORNERS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.205 | 2.800 |
| HOME_FOULS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | full | 2.857 | 3.742 |
| HOME_GK_SAVES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.414 | 1.804 |
| HOME_GOALS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.963 | 1.223 |
| HOME_OFFSIDES | lstm_mlp_multi | cform_coach_form_mean_rest | none | 1.209 | 1.554 |
| HOME_PASSES | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 65.331 | 82.955 |
| HOME_PASS_ACC | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 4.216 | 5.517 |
| HOME_POSSESSION | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 6.318 | 7.914 |
| HOME_REDCARDS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 0.153 | 0.306 |
| HOME_SHOTS_IN_BOX | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 2.516 | 3.381 |
| HOME_SHOTS_ON_TARGET | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.856 | 2.355 |
| HOME_TOTAL_SHOTS | lstm_mlp_single | cards_cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 3.703 | 4.734 |
| HOME_YELLOWCARDS | lgbm | cform_coach_diffmean_diffsum_form_h2h_mean_nplayers_referee_rest_stage_sum | none | 1.056 | 1.328 |
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+